Archives des Tunisia - mdi-international

5,500 Dinars to Live Decently, 554 Dinars to Survive

Ahmed Lagha — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 04:30:26 +0000

5,500 Tunisian dinars per month (equivalent to approximately 1,618 euros).

In 2026, this is the monthly wage – adjusted for inflation – that a Tunisian family comprising two parents and two children would need to live comfortably, without having to resort to a bank loan.

This was stated by the academic and economist Ridha Chkoundali on Jawhara FM radio on Tuesday 9 June, following studies that assessed the real cost of living in Tunisia, thereby highlighting the significant gap between a household’s actual income and its necessary daily expenditure.

5,500 dinars per month are required to cover the cost of living, compared with a Tunisian guaranteed minimum wage (SMIG) of 554 dinars per month. That is roughly 10 times the value of the SMIG: does this mean one would have to work 10 times as hard to reach a decent standard of living?

The answer is simple: no.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Tunisia’s trajectory regarding consumer credit is a cause for concern. Whilst inflation has finally stabilised to some extent since the post-Covid period, there is no guarantee that this trend will continue in the years to come. Rising energy prices or production costs could quickly reignite inflationary pressures.

“According to Ridha Chkoundali, the effects of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East are not yet fully reflected in the current statistics. He stated, however, that Tunisia could face imported inflation in the coming months as a result of the disruptions affecting global energy and commodity markets.” (Business News)

The economist points out that a rise in energy costs in Europe will automatically feed through to production costs and fuel domestic inflation in the Tunisian economy, which is itself heavily dependent on imports of raw materials and other European products.

Against this backdrop, rising household debt, combined with a persistent erosion of purchasing power, risks becoming particularly dangerous for the country’s economic and social stability; it should also be noted that Tunisian purchasing power has fallen by 25 per cent over the last three years …

Sources: Jawhara FM, Business News, La Presse Tunisie, Tuniscope.com.

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An Oil Shock Tunisia Cannot Absorb Without Structural Reforms

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 17:07:19 +0000

Brent crude settled at $79.45 on March 1 — before the strike on the Ras Tanura refinery operated by Saudi Aramco, before major shipping lines suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and before mounting security alerts signaled that this narrow waterway – conduit for nearly one-fifth of global oil flows – had become a strategic flashpoint.

The price visible on trading screens reflects transactions already executed; it does not fully incorporate routes disrupted, insurance premiums recalculated, and supply chains placed under geopolitical constraint. Markets continue to treat oil primarily as a commodity. Yet in the Strait of Hormuz, it is increasingly subject to geopolitical leverage.

For Tunisia, this shift is not theoretical. It has direct macroeconomic consequences.

A Budget Assumption Under Strain

Tunisia’s 2026 Finance Law is built on an assumed average oil price of $63.3 per barrel. Current levels stand well above that reference. The deviation is economically significant.

Each additional dollar in the price of oil adds approximately 164 million dinars to compensation expenditures. This mechanism is automatic: higher import costs expand subsidy requirements, widening the fiscal deficit unless offset by higher revenues or expenditure restraint.

At $80 per barrel, fiscal pressure intensifies. At $90, adjustment becomes considerably more difficult. At $100, the budgetary impact is substantial and sustained.

Tunisia enters this phase with elevated public debt, rigid expenditure structures dominated by wages, subsidies, and debt servicing, and limited access to international capital markets. In such a configuration, the scope for discretionary counter-cyclical policy is structurally constrained.

Inflation Through Production and Imports

The oil shock extends beyond public finances. Energy is a core input in transport, electricity generation, agriculture, and manufacturing. Petroleum derivatives are embedded in plastics, packaging, fertilizers, and numerous industrial processes. Tunisia also imports finished goods from economies where energy prices are not subsidized, meaning higher oil prices are transmitted directly through import costs.

The consequence is imported inflation.

According to Capital Economics, a prolonged conflict pushing oil to $100 per barrel could add between 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points to global inflation. For Tunisia, such an increase would translate into higher consumer prices, further compressing purchasing power at a time when households are already adjusting to elevated living costs.

Inflation in this context is not merely a statistical outcome; it has distributive effects, disproportionately affecting lower- and middle-income households whose consumption baskets are more sensitive to energy and transport costs.

External Balances and Logistical Pressures

As a net importer of hydrocarbons, Tunisia’s trade balance is structurally sensitive to oil prices. A sustained rise in the energy bill deepens the current account deficit and places additional strain on foreign-exchange reserves; a key buffer for exchange-rate stability and external confidence.

Logistics compound this vulnerability. Maritime insurance premiums have increased amid instability affecting transit routes, particularly through the Suez Canal. Rerouting and security surcharges raise freight costs, affecting both consumer goods and intermediate inputs used in domestic production.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase has noted that dozens of empty oil tankers are currently waiting near the Gulf region. Storage capacity in producing countries is limited to only a few days of output. Should disruptions persist, logistical bottlenecks could evolve into production constraints, reinforcing upward pressure on prices and prolonging market tightness.

Under such conditions, what begins as volatility risks becoming structural imbalance.

A Dual Shock in a Constrained Policy Environment

The present oil surge constitutes a dual shock for Tunisia:

Fiscal, through rising compensation costs and widening deficits;
Economic, through imported inflation, higher production expenses, and increased transport costs.

These channels interact. Larger subsidies expand borrowing needs; higher import bills weaken external balances; inflation erodes real incomes; slower growth limits revenue mobilization. The cumulative effect narrows policy options further.

Tunisia’s vulnerability is structural. The economy remains heavily dependent on imported hydrocarbons to sustain transport, electricity generation, and industry. Export diversification remains limited, and foreign-currency earnings are insufficient to offset large energy import bills. Fiscal rigidities reduce flexibility precisely when flexibility is most needed.

Without structural reform – including accelerated investment in renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, enhanced export competitiveness, and a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy – exposure to external energy shocks will persist.

Regional Context, Asymmetric Exposure

Tunisia is not alone in its sensitivity to oil prices. Morocco, also a net oil importer, faces similar exposure to prolonged price increases and imported inflation.

By contrast, Algeria, as a hydrocarbon exporter, benefits from higher prices in the short term. Yet its fiscal and external balances remain closely tied to energy revenues, and regional instability carries its own financial and security risks. Energy shocks reshape North African macroeconomic dynamics, albeit asymmetrically.

A Narrow Margin for Absorption

The Strait of Hormuz lies far from Tunis geographically, but its stability influences Tunisia’s fiscal trajectory, inflation path, reserve adequacy, and growth outlook. In an interconnected energy system, distance offers no insulation.

If oil prices stabilize quickly, Tunisia will face a demanding but manageable adjustment. If elevated prices persist, the convergence of fiscal expansion, external deterioration, and inflationary pressure could significantly constrain macroeconomic stability.

In this context, the gravest risk is not simply fiscal slippage or higher inflation, but a broader breakdown of economic stability; one that could weaken the dinar, exhaust foreign-exchange reserves, and trigger acute shortages. Such a configuration would not remain confined to macroeconomic indicators; it would carry profound social and political consequences in a country where economic strain has historically translated into systemic upheaval.

A further vulnerability lies in Tunisia’s increasingly constrained diplomatic positioning. External financial support cannot be assumed. In previous crises, Gulf countries provided liquidity backstops or budgetary assistance. Today, geopolitical alignments are more fragmented, and Tunisia’s ambiguous positioning in regional tensions may reduce the likelihood of rapid financial relief from traditional partners.

Should regional polarization intensify, economic repercussions could extend beyond capital flows. Labor mobility, remittance channels, and bilateral economic ties may become exposed to political recalibration. For countries such as Tunisia and Algeria, whose citizens maintain economic linkages across the Gulf, the risk is not only financial but also socio-economic.

In such a scenario and to conclude, the convergence of constrained external financing, accelerating dinar depreciation, reserve exhaustion, entrenched inflation, and disrupted remittance inflows would not merely intensify macroeconomic stress; it could transform what is currently treated as speculative risk into the premature unraveling of an already fragile economic system. An economy structurally dependent on external financing, weak in productive diversification, and unable to generate sustained growth or macroeconomic stability cannot indefinitely absorb cumulative shocks.

Under prolonged pressure, the outcome would not be a cyclical adjustment, but the materialization of a risk long feared yet seldom articulated: that sustained economic breakdown could once again trigger systemic political rupture. If left unaddressed, the consequences may extend beyond institutional instability to social fragmentation and lasting damage to the state itself. The question is no longer whether reform is necessary, but whether there is still time to act.

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Happy New Year 2026 from the MDI team!

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 16:54:41 +0000

Dear fellow citizens, devoted patriots,

As we enter the new year of 2026, my dearest wish is for the salvation of our homeland.

Tunisia stands at a crossroads: we must, above all, save it from bankruptcy, but also rid it of the poison of hatred and polarisation that divides us.

The Tunisian people deserve infinitely better than what they are enduring today. It is unacceptable that a people with a thousand-year-old heritage should be reduced to suffering the humiliation of shortages, the scourge of mass unemployment and the blight of pollution that chokes our cities. Let us finally choose practical action over sterile ideology. The recovery of our economy must no longer be a campaign promise, but our sole and only guiding principle.

Our vision is of a bold and competitive Tunisia. We have talents shining all over the world; it is time to create the conditions for them to build here, at home. We call for an economic revolution based on innovation, the energy transition and the unleashing of initiative.

Let us spare a special thought for our regions, such as Gabès, where the environment and the health of our fellow citizens have for too long been sacrificed on the altar of neglect. Environmental justice is the foundation of dignity. Let us stop diverting regional wealth; let us finally devote it to the priority development of those who produce and protect it.

Now is the time for unity and absolute autonomy.

Tunisia must no longer beg for its bread or sell off its sovereignty to anyone. We emphatically state that our country is not for sale and that its security cannot be delegated: our sovereignty will never be surrendered to Algerian interests or to any foreign power. Let us rely on our own strengths, on our creative genius and on unwavering solidarity with the most vulnerable. We will leave no one by the wayside.

The economic solutions to create wealth and decent jobs for all Tunisians are well known and within our grasp. We possess the necessary skills and our own resources to implement these solutions, so that we may seize our independence with our own hands. We no longer need to remain at the mercy of any country, nor wait for ‘aid’ that condemns us to live forever in the submission and humiliation of dependence.

We must choose our dignity, our ambition and genuine solidarity. Enough of empty slogans, and enough of this rhetoric of “toxic fraternity” which has brought us nothing but alienation. The time has come to stand shoulder to shoulder and rebuild our country, together.

May 2026 be the year of restored sovereignty, economic excellence and social justice. Let us make this the year in which Tunisia stops suffering and starts building again.

Long live Tunisia, free, prosperous and proud!

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Clitomachus of Carthage, the Tunisian philosopher our Republic needs!

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 19:52:59 +0000

Since independence, Tunisia has continuously sought to define the contours of an identity that is truly its own—both freed from the weight of colonial domination and liberated from reductive interpretations. The notion of “Tunisianity” belongs to this quest: not a single Arab-Muslim identity, but the heritage of a long historical layering in which Berbers, Punics, Romans, Christians, Arabs and other Mediterranean peoples have, successively or simultaneously, shaped this land.

Habib Bourguiba himself embodied this ambivalence. In the early years of independence, he favoured a unifying discourse centred on Arab-Muslim belonging, even distancing the Amazigh dimension, which he perceived as a potential threat to national unity. Yet, at the same time, he was profoundly aware of the richness of Tunisia’s ancient past and did not hesitate to symbolically place himself in the lineage of figures such as Hannibal or Saint Augustine. It is from this plural historical foundation that he paradoxically helped forge the basis of a modern Tunisianity: rooted in its historical depth, yet open to the Mediterranean and the wider world.

It is within this intellectual continuity that it becomes both relevant and necessary today to consider the integration of Clitomachus of Carthage into the Tunisian pantheon.

Clitomachus of Carthage: a Carthaginian at the heart of ancient philosophy

Clitomachus of Carthage, whose Carthaginian name was Hasdrubal, is one of the most fascinating yet most overlooked figures of ancient philosophy. Born in Carthage around 187 BC, he left his native city for Athens after the destruction of Carthage, where he became a disciple of Carneades and, later, the head of the New Academy.

His work forms part of the tradition of Academic scepticism, in opposition to the dogmatism of the Stoics and the Epicureans. Clitomachus rejected the idea of absolute certainty and proposed that our judgements be founded on what is probable rather than what is certain. After the death of Carneades, he did not merely defend his master’s ideas: he deepened, organised and extended them, giving Academic scepticism its most accomplished form.

None of his writings has survived directly, yet his influence permeates Greco-Roman philosophy, notably through the works of Cicero. Clitomachus thus embodies an erudite ancient Tunisia—discreet, yet essential to the history of universal thought.

A philosophy of the probable for a world of uncertainty

Clitomachus’s thought rests on two pillars:

the rejection of absolute certainty;
the adoption of probability as a criterion for judgement and action.

For him, our perceptions and reasoning are always susceptible to error. Unlike the Stoics, who believed that completely reliable knowledge was attainable, Clitomachus held that we can never reach such a level of certainty.

Confronted with this fragility, he did not advocate withdrawal from the world, but rather an art of decision-making amid uncertainty. He distinguished several degrees of probability—simple, confirmed, then confirmed and coherent—which allow one to act without falling into dogmatism. What matters is not “knowing once and for all”, but accepting that our judgements must be continually reassessed in light of new information.

Clitomachus thus stands at the heart of an ancient debate—between fate and freedom, certainty and doubt—which resonates with particular force today. His critique of Stoic fatalism and of the astrological beliefs of his time echoes our contemporary struggles against conspiratorial narratives, mass disinformation and ready-made truths.

Formulated more than two thousand years ago, his principles speak to our era saturated with information and rumours:

beware of easy certainties;
accept uncertainty as a normal condition;
act on the basis of what is most probable, without claiming to possess ultimate truth.

Clitomachus’s probabilistic scepticism is not a philosophy of paralysis, but a school of vigilance, prudence and responsibility.

A missing pillar of the Tunisian pantheon

In the Council of Ministers’ chamber at the Carthage Palace, the Tunisian president placed, like four sentinels of Tunisianity, the tutelary figures watching over the young Republic: Hannibal the strategist, Jugurtha the resister, Ibn Khaldun the thinker, and above all Saint Augustine, the Carthaginian who managed to hold together faith and reason.

But this pantheon still lacks a purely philosophical figure, born of its soil, embodying the strength of critical thought and rational dialogue: Clitomachus. His philosophy reminds us that the search for truth is a path, not a fixed block; that it requires doubt, the confrontation of arguments, and the refusal of overly simple answers.

In a world where truth often seems elusive, where extremist narratives and media manipulation proliferate, Clitomachus offers us a precious antidote:

constructive doubt rather than cynicism;
enlightened inquiry rather than blind belief;
reasonable probability rather than fanatical certainty.

Just as fruitful connections were once drawn between Saint Augustine and Plato, Clitomachus can extend another synthesis: that of faith, reason and rational inquiry—an integral part of the Mediterranean’s deeper identity. To add him to the Tunisian pantheon would be to assert loudly that Tunisia is defined not only by the sword or dogma, but also by the mind, debate, enlightened doubt and the pursuit of truth.

An act of cultural reappropriation

Far from representing an inward-looking identity claim, the recognition of Clitomachus would strengthen the image of Tunisia as a crossroads of civilisations—open and conscious of the richness of its past. It would in fact extend Bourguiba’s most fertile intuition: to situate Tunisia not within a narrow identity, but within a plural, Mediterranean and universalist historical continuity.

Granting Clitomachus an explicit place within the Tunisian pantheon would be an essential gesture of cultural reappropriation. It would amount to affirming that critical thought, philosophy and knowledge are not merely imported from elsewhere: they were also produced here, in Carthage, by a Tunisian before the word existed.

Such a gesture would help rebalance a Tunisian collective imagination too often turned towards external references, even though Tunisia possesses an immense, under-exploited intellectual heritage of its own. Instead of citing only the poets of the jāhiliyya or distant figures, it would mean placing at the centre our own thinkers, our own sages—those who spoke from this land.

Restoring Clitomachus and other Carthaginian or Mediterranean figures to our symbolic horizon does not fragment the nation; on the contrary, it reconfigures our past in the sense described by Paul Ricoeur: changing the meaning of that past by rereading it differently. It is not about resurrecting rival identities, but about stitching back together what has been torn apart: recreating a common narrative, strengthening the sense of belonging and fostering a deeper cohesion among Tunisians, united around a plural history that is fully assumed and fully claimed. Only under these conditions will we be able to face together the challenges of development and finally offer young people a future worthy of their aspirations.

Translated from the article written in French on the Tunisian media outlet Business News.

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“America First” Meets Tunisia: Trump’s Next Strategic Investment Move

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Wed, 06 Aug 2025 18:17:19 +0000

As the populist chapter of Kaïs Saied’s rule nears its end, and his throne begins to wobble under the weight of a desperate and disillusioned population, Tunisia stands at a pivotal crossroads. Though re-elected in the contested October 2024 elections, Saied emerges politically diminished, his domestic legitimacy eroded, and his international isolation deepening. Rather than charting a new course, he clings to symbolic gestures and ideological posturing.

His recent meeting with Trump senior adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, exemplified this drift. Marketed as a sovereign pivot, it instead revealed a president on the defensive, exploiting the tragedy in Gaza to flatter his base by humiliating the American envoy. The performance, intended to project strength, instead laid bare the regime’s fragility — revealing a president increasingly detached from political reality and blind to the country’s pressing economic crises.

Behind Saied’s rhetoric of “diversification” lies no coherent economic vision. China, despite being touted as an alternative, supports IMF-backed reforms and shows little interest in a high-risk partnership. Russia is crippled by war and sanctions; Iran offers ideology, not investment. These alignments do not serve the Tunisian people, they serve a regime in search of legitimacy, propped up by authoritarian allies willing to turn a blind eye.

What is presented as sovereign diplomacy is, in reality, an empty last stand, a clumsy performance aimed at the United States, a power Kaïs Saied openly despises and deeply fears, in a desperate attempt to cling to power and deflect attention from his failures under the guise of anti-imperialist bravado.

A new future is possible

Today, Tunisia is ready to turn the page on a troubled chapter marked by economic stagnation, political instability, and diminished freedoms.

The nation finds itself at a crossroads, presented with a historic opportunity to reshape its future and reassert its role as a dynamic and influential player in the global economy. Healthcare, in particular, offers a strategic avenue for growth, positioning Tunisia as a potential regional hub of medical excellence. By drawing inspiration from Singapore’s model, the country could attract world-class investment and expertise, particularly from the United States. However, seizing this opportunity will require Tunisia to carefully navigate the complexities of its forthcoming transition and avoid repeating the missteps of the past.

A Multi-Billion-Dollar Opportunity for U.S. Firms

Tunisia is uniquely positioned to emerge as a premier medical hub in the Mediterranean region, driven by its advanced private healthcare infrastructure, highly competitive operational costs, and strategic geographic location, conveniently accessible from both Europe and Africa. By attracting European patients who seek not only cost-effective and high-quality medical care but also timely treatment unavailable due to extensive waiting lists in their home countries, Tunisia stands to substantially boost its economy, effectively address the increasing demand for prompt medical services, and significantly enhance its international standing as a trusted healthcare destination.

Healthcare spending in Europe has been increasing steadily, reaching 1,35 trillion euros in 2024. Given that approximately 20%-30% of this expenditure involves elective procedures, Tunisia stands to gain access to a market exceeding €100 billion annually by capturing even a modest 10% share.

In this context, U.S. companies and healthcare providers are poised to seize a multi-billion-dollar opportunity by developing hospitals, clinics, and training centers that serve European and African patients. Furthermore, these investments would strengthen U.S.-Tunisia relations, amplifying American influence in the Mediterranean region and ensuring Tunisia remains aligned with the U.S. rather than drifting eastward into the embrace of Iran or Russia. Yet, troubling signs already loom on the horizon: since June 15, 2024, Iranians have enjoyed visa-free entry into Tunisia, quietly planting seeds of influence whose bitter harvest we may soon reap. This policy is part of a broader strategy by Kais Saied to deepen political, trade, and cultural ties with the Iranian regime, a move that raises serious concerns about the geopolitical and domestic ramifications of aligning Tunisia with such a repressive and destabilizing force.

Simultaneously, Russia, freshly expelled from Syria, actively searches for fertile ground upon which to anchor a new naval base—its eyes now set firmly upon Tunisia’s strategic shores.

Amid growing geopolitical threats, Tunisia has a brief but critical window to redefine its path. The post-populist transition will be crucial, as any delay risks missed opportunities and increased external vulnerability.

Positioning Tunisia as a premier medical hub could serve as a cornerstone of this transition. By addressing critical regulatory and logistical hurdles in the healthcare sector, Tunisia can attract world-class investment and expertise. Crafting comprehensive bilateral agreements with key European countries would streamline reimbursement processes, facilitate patient mobility, and ensure alignment with EU medical standards. Additionally, adopting successful models such as partnerships between American healthcare giants like Johns Hopkins or Mayo Clinic and medical hubs in the UAE or Singapore could reduce European skepticism toward healthcare services outside the EU.

A crucial two-year transition

With Tunisia nearing the end of a turbulent political cycle, the country will require a two-year transition to lay the groundwork for credible reforms and renewed investor confidence—delivering quick wins while shaping a long-term economic strategy.

While healthcare holds long-term promise, Tunisia’s immediate gains lie in its rich phosphate reserves, military collaboration, tourism and real estate opportunities, energy projects, and active regional diplomacy.

Notably, phosphate, though not currently on the U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, is gaining attention, with industry groups like The Fertilizer Institute pushing for its inclusion. Its crucial role in American agriculture aligns with the “America First” agenda, offering quick wins for the Trump administration while boosting Tunisia’s stability and economy.

Tunisia could attract U.S. investments by mirroring Singapore’s stability, infrastructure, and pro-business policies, but it must first tackle corruption, bureaucracy, and instability. That will be among the objectives of Tunisia’s post-populist two-year transition. Initiatives such as special investment zones offering streamlined regulations and incentives could create immediate economic momentum.

To further reassure American investors, and shield itself from hostile neighbors, Tunisia should also replicate Singapore’s nuanced strategy of protecting investments through robust legal guarantees, economic alignment, and a carefully balanced strategic military presence—one that stops short of a full U.S. military base but still signals security and reliability. Tunisian success stories would act as powerful driver for expanding American influence and economic interests into Libya and across the Region.

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Morocco and the Reform of the Moudawana

Ahmed Lagha — Sat, 04 Jan 2025 20:56:00 +0000

The Moudawana, or Moroccan Personal Status Code, is a set of laws governing personal status issues, including marriage, divorce, child custody, inheritance, and family relations in Morocco. Playing a central role in regulating the rights and duties of family members, it was first adopted in 1957/58, following Morocco’s independence.

The Moudawana long reflected a traditional and patriarchal vision of society. However, growing criticism over gender inequality and insufficient protection of women’s rights led to a major revision in 2004, spearheaded by King Mohammed VI, who aimed to safeguard women’s rights while respecting Islamic principles.

The 2004 reform introduced key changes: equality between spouses, raising the legal marriage age from 15 to 18, stricter regulation of polygamy, allowing women to file for divorce under specific circumstances, and reforms in child custody and inheritance.

In late 2024, another revision to the Moudawana brought additional reforms: Moroccan women can now be legal guardians of their children (retaining custody even after remarriage), couples can divorce amicably without court intervention, and wives can prohibit polygamy at the time of marriage.

However, the lack of parity in inheritance laws remains a critical issue, mirroring the situation in Tunisia and serving as a significant obstacle to progressive societal evolution in North Africa.

In Tunisia, for instance, former President Beji Caid Essebsi proposed a historic reform in 2018 to establish gender equality in inheritance. This initiative was part of his broader project to modernize women’s rights and aligned with Tunisia’s progressive legacy in gender equality. Yet, discussions around these legislative proposals remain unresolved.

The fight for more progressive North African societies is far from over, but the efforts made in our time are far from insignificant.

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Transactionally Yours: The EU and Tunisia Confront Their Own Contradictions

Ahmed Lagha — Sun, 17 Nov 2024 19:32:17 +0000

October 29-30, 2024, will mark the resumption of negotiations between Tunisia and the European Union, represented by the Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations (DG Near, managing the Tunisia dossier and holding the purse strings) and the European External Action Service (EEAS, responsible for policy direction). This meeting in Tunis, the first during Kaïs Saïed’s second term, aims to discuss the details of implementing the migration memorandum signed on July 16, 2023.

To better grasp the stakes of this meeting, it is crucial to demystify the narratives underlying EU-Tunisia relations. On one side, the EU justifies its transactional strategy as an effort to stabilize Tunisia and prevent it from pivoting toward geopolitical adversaries like Russia and China (implicitly due to a lack of European cooperation). On the other, Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed portrays himself to supporters as a staunch defender of national sovereignty, publicly rejecting the role of Europe’s “coastguard” while discreetly cooperating at a minimal level with European entities like Frontex to stop migrants from heading to Europe, rescue them at sea, and facilitate their repatriation.

However, this limited cooperation does not satisfy the Europeans, who are desperately seeking to intensify collaboration by proposing the establishment of readmission hubs with their partners. A growing idea is the creation of dedicated return centers outside the Schengen area, in third countries. For the EU27, the objective is clear: accelerate deportations at any cost, with little regard for ethical concerns. This tightening of readmission mechanisms reflects Europe’s frenzy to strengthen its migration policies, increasingly outsourcing management to partner countries like Tunisia, now central to this strategy.

In Tunisia’s current context, marked by a severe economic crisis, this initiative could represent an opportunity to replenish the country’s desperately empty state coffers. The critical question is: how far can Kaïs Saïed maintain his sovereignty rhetoric in the face of European demands? Will he be forced to accept transactional compromises to save the country’s economy? This question is even more pressing for the Europeans as it arises against the backdrop of recent failures in British and Italian projects to outsource asylum-seeker management to Rwanda and Albania, respectively.

Nevertheless, this transactional approach carries significant risks. By supporting an increasingly authoritarian regime, the EU risks complicity in human rights abuses intensifying under Saïed’s presidency, thereby undermining its own legitimacy as a defender of democratic values.

Faced with an authoritarian drift in Tunisia, the EU treads an increasingly unsustainable tightrope, oscillating between a minimal facade of respect for democratic principles and the need to maintain functional relations with a key partner in security and migration management. This precarious stance is further strained by investigations, such as those by The Guardian, alleging severe abuses by EU-funded Tunisian security forces, including sexual violence and flagrant human rights violations against migrants (officially denied by Tunisia). Pressure is mounting for Brussels to account for its knowledge of these abuses and outline corrective measures, even as EU funds continue to support this repressive regime. Moreover, DG Near reportedly anticipated such abuses in an internal note that was later buried.

Transactionally Yours: A Bluffing Game

Ultimately, the fate of these negotiations will depend on Kaïs Saïed’s ability to balance his political ambitions with Tunisia’s immediate needs, particularly securing direct budgetary support and an EU loan without IMF conditions, as promised by Giorgia Meloni. Having already accepted the role of Europe’s border guard during the Memorandum’s signing in July 2023, Saïed is likely to go even further this time, buying time to secure financial relief while advancing his rapprochement with the BRICS, particularly Russia. Migration, the sole remaining link between Saïed and a Europe he constantly criticizes, once again becomes the linchpin of a compromise, muting his anti-Western rhetoric and defiance of perceived diktats.

Meanwhile, Europe, consumed by the urgency of migration challenges, seems ready to abandon a core pillar of the 1957 Treaty of Rome, which initiated development cooperation, and current treaties such as the Treaty on European Union (Article 21) and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (Article 208). These treaties define principles aimed at reducing poverty and promoting sustainable development. The cooperation budget is now redirected toward a securitized and repressive day-to-day management of migration. This philosophical shift is aptly summarized by a tweet from French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad on October 24, 2024: “Time for realism. Europe must stop seeing itself as a vast market or an NGO defending universal values and instead think of itself as a political entity with its own economic and security interests.”

However, reducing Europe solely to economic and security realism forgets that its strength lies in the balance between market, security, and universal values. If Europe abandons its defense of human rights and solidarity principles, it will lose not only its soul but also the influence that allows it to build partnerships based on trust and respect. Viewing Europe merely as a cold political entity risks a reductive vision, distancing it from what has made it successful and differentiates it from countries like Putin’s Russia.

Ultimately, these negotiations resemble a high-stakes poker game where both sides strategically advance their interests, concealing true intentions behind official statements. Europe, fixated on managing migration and driven by pressure amplified by far-right parties exploiting the issue for political gain, and Tunisia, economically strangled, are engaged in a game where pragmatic interests outweigh declared principles. Alarmist rhetoric about migrants primarily serves domestic political objectives, distracting from real issues and reinforcing a transactional approach at the expense of democratic values and human rights. Behind the facade of cooperation, power dynamics and economic survival dictate the actions of both parties, far from the proclaimed ideals of sovereignty and democratic values.

This article was posted and translated by Ahmed Lagha but was originally written by Maxence Vanhille for the Tunisian digital newspaper Business News in French.

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“Echoes from Tunisia: Populism, Transition, and Hopes for Democracy” – Ghazi Ben Ahmed Releases His New Book on Tunisia

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 22:21:08 +0000

Echoes from Tunisia, Populism, Transition, and Hopes for Democracy (Ed. L’Harmattan, release date: 23 september 2024). I firmly believe that the (controversial) presidential elections in Tunisia provide an opportunity to assess the state of the country and the record of President Kaïs Saïed, who holds all powers. What are his achievements? What is the added value of this hyper-presidency? With what results is candidate Kaïs Saïed presenting himself to the people?

My book is an opportunity to open this debate, but beyond that, it is much more than just a political essay. It is a committed, rigorous, and nuanced work that offers a deep and objective analysis of Tunisia’s internal dynamics while connecting them to global transformations. It is essential not only for Tunisians seeking to understand the challenges their country faces but also for Europeans wanting to grasp the complex interactions between migration, populism, and international relations.

In summary, this book is an indispensable tool for anyone wishing to understand the crucial issues of today’s world, whether in politics, economics, or geopolitics. Tunisia, at the crossroads between its past, its tumultuous present, and its future aspirations, is revealed in all its complexity through these pages. It is a must-read for anyone who seeks to better understand our times and the challenges that lie ahead.

L’Harmattan also provides us with a summary of the contents of the book by Ghazi Ben Ahmed, founder of Mediterranean Development Initiative, on the back cover: “This book offers a hard-hitting analysis of the political and socio-economic crisis in Tunisia, exploring its genesis and its repercussions on Europe. As populist President Kais Saied consolidates his authoritarian rule, the situation extends far beyond Tunisia’s borders, leading to increased migration to Europe and fuelling populist and far-right rhetoric.

The book also highlights the decisive role of European policies, particularly Italian, in consolidating this authoritarian regime, a particularly crucial issue with the arrival of a new European executive. It also highlights the European Union’s lack of a long-term vision for Tunisia, and the recycling of its existing policies, which often limit the potential of relations between the two shores. By revealing these interconnections, this book invites reflection on the future of Euro-Mediterranean relations and the impact of these policy choices on the stability of Europe and its southern neighbourhood. It hopes to inspire greater understanding and cooperation between Tunisia and the European Union, for the mutual benefit of all concerned.”

The book by our founder Ghazi Ben Ahmed is available for pre-order on the Harmattan website in French ONLY. It will be published on 23 September. The price is 27 euros (+ postage).

L’article “Echoes from Tunisia: Populism, Transition, and Hopes for Democracy” – Ghazi Ben Ahmed Releases His New Book on Tunisia est apparu en premier sur mdi-international.

The Repayment of Tunisia’s Debt: A Never-Ending Trap?

Ahmed Lagha — Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:02:17 +0000

“I say it loud and clear to the entire world: we will bow only before Almighty God. In the Quran, there is no surah named after the International Monetary Fund!” This is how Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed expressed his vision of a sovereign and independent Tunisia during a visit to Redeyef, near the Algerian border.

However, these words are out of step with reality. While the president portrayed himself as a defender of a self-sufficient Tunisia, his ministers were busy seeking loans from foreign banks and countries to secure vital funds for an economy on the brink of collapse.

These loans, although necessary, have led to drastic economic reforms that have resulted in significant food shortages and fueled popular discontent. The first measure was the removal of subsidies on basic food products, a decision that caused shortages, particularly of durum wheat, soft wheat, and vegetable oils, and led to a 64% drop in the trade balance in November 2023. These subsidies, established during Bourguiba’s era, were abruptly ended without proper preparation, exacerbating the situation.

Even though Tunisia no longer relies on the IMF, it has taken out loans from countries across three continents. In this way, it borrowed €810.5 million from Europe and received $1.62 billion from international, African, Arab, and Asian financial institutions over the past two years.

On July 2, 2024, Finance Minister Sihem Namsia announced that Tunisia had repaid all its domestic and foreign debt services for 2023, an amount of approximately $2.7 billion, which the government presented as a success. But this “success” was achieved at the cost of massive borrowing, further worsening the country’s economic and social situation.

Tunisians, facing shortages of basic necessities, endure scenes of endless queues to obtain rice, sugar, or flour. These shortages and the general impoverishment have fueled growing anger.

And now? Inflation remains unchecked, the dinar continues to depreciate against the euro, and economic growth is almost non-existent. Faced with these challenges, it is imperative to find solutions before future generations are left to pay the price for today’s mistakes, often exploited for electoral purposes.

This article was strongly inspired by the story published by the Tunisian media outlet Nawaat on 22 August 2024.

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North Africa’s Solar Ambitions: Successes in Morocco and Egypt, Stalled Progress in Tunisia

Ahmed Lagha — Tue, 13 Aug 2024 06:13:26 +0000

The solar potential of North Africa is exceptional. The most formal proof of this is the realization, in 2016, of the Moroccan solar complex Noor, located in the province of Ouarzazate, in the southeast of the country. Equipped with four technologically different solar power plants and spread over more than 3000 hectares, this solar project aims to increase the share of renewable energy in Morocco’s national electricity mix to more than 52% by 2030. Capable of supplying electricity to more than two million Moroccans, the project has been supported by partners and investors such as the African Development Bank Group, Masen, and the European Union.

On the Egyptian side, it is the Benban Solar Park, located in the Aswan Governorate and commissioned in 2019, that commands admiration! With a maximum capacity of 1650 megawatts peak, the annual production is estimated at 3.8 terawatt-hours. Benban has since become the largest solar installation in the world.

But what is happening on the Tunisian side? Why are the country’s energy ambitions not reaching the goals achieved by its neighbors?

Due to the monopolistic behavior of the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Company (STEG), disagreements between investors, partners, authorities, and local organizations, large-scale solar projects in southern Tunisia are being canceled over time without reaching agreements.

For now, only two solar power plant projects (the Tozeur photovoltaic plant and the Tataouine plant) are operational, but their energy production is not enough to meet the country’s annual energy ambitions.

Indeed, the recent news of the cancellation of a solar power plant project in the city of Gafsa is not a good sign. At odds with the Tunisian authorities, the Franco-Moroccan consortium ENGIE/NAREVA will not build this plant, due to disagreements over the pricing basis for electricity commercialization. The recent spike in solar panel prices and the prices proposed by the Tunisian authorities have made the project unprofitable, according to the same consortium.

Furthermore, other information has reached us that Scatec, the Norwegian energy company entrusted with the construction of another solar power plant project in Tataouine, is finally abandoning the project. The company no longer believes in the economic viability of the project, given “the economic upheavals, post-COVID inflation, and the increase in interest rates by at least 4%.”

The project has therefore been reassigned to an Emirati competitor, but they cannot start work without the approval of the Tunisian parliament, which has been frozen until the crucial date of the next presidential elections on October 6.

Lagging in the race for sustainable development, Tunisia finds itself stalled due to blockages and disagreements.

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