In the gilded halls of Carthage Palace, Tunisian President Kaïs Saied delivered what was meant to look like a principled stand. In reality, it was a carefully choreographed ambush. When Massad Boulos, adviser to Donald Trump on Arab and African affairs, arrived in Tunis, he was met not with the customary decorum of diplomacy, but with a solemn and theatrical display: graphic images of Palestinian suffering, accusations of genocide, and a scathing indictment of Israeli policy. There was no attempt at dialogue, no pretense of cooperation. It was a lecture and a performance.

The tragedy unfolding in Gaza is real, and it warrants global attention. But so too is the political manipulation that often cloaks itself in righteous outrage. That an authoritarian figure like Kaïs Saied was the one delivering the message, and that the United States handed him the platform to do so, is what should trouble policymakers in Washington. Whether out of naïveté or miscalculation, the U.S. gifted a struggling strongman the opportunity to polish his image at their expense, and Saied seized it with precision.

What played out in Tunis was not an isolated misstep. It was part of a well-worn script used by autocrats across the region, a performance steeped in ambiguity, crafted to appeal to Western sensitivities while masking the hard truth of domestic repression. When legitimacy falters at home, when economies collapse and dissent simmers, the Palestinian cause becomes the go-to refuge. It offers moral cover, international headlines, and a distraction from domestic decay. From Tehran to Algiers, and now Tunis, the tactic is the same.

Facing Tunisia’s most severe crisis in decades, economic freefall, international isolation, and an erosion of civil liberties, Saied resorted to this playbook. The display wasn’t meant to advance Palestinian rights. It was meant to deflect, to rally support, and to reframe himself as a moral voice in a region where he’s anything but.

This is a man who suspended parliament, dismantled judicial independence, jailed journalists, and crushed dissent. This is a leader who revived ties with Bashar al-Assad, the architect of mass atrocities against the Syrian people. Thousands of children were murdered under Assad’s regime, gassed, burned, and bombed, yet Saied saw no contradiction in welcoming him back into the diplomatic fold. To denounce Israeli brutality while embracing the butcher of Damascus isn’t just hypocrisy, it’s moral bankruptcy.

The meeting with Boulos offered Saied something he rarely gets these days: international validation. And he used it not to engage, but to perform. He wasn’t speaking to America; he was speaking through America, to a domestic audience he hopes to galvanize and to regional powers drawn to the toxic blend of populism and authoritarianism he now embodies. The message was clear: I stand defiant, I resist pressure, I defend Palestine. Never mind the Tunisians enduring rising poverty, censorship, and fear under his rule.

What did Washington expect to gain from this encounter? Influence? Leverage? The result was a photo op turned political weapon. And it underscores a deeper problem: the U.S. continues to treat repressive regimes as if they are rational actors in a shared rules-based order. But today’s autocrats aren’t just governing, they’re staging performances, and unless America understands that, it will continue being cast in roles it never auditioned for.

What makes this all the more damaging is the silence that follows. As Saied brands political opponents as traitors, lashes out at NGOs, and tightens his grip on power, Washington offers little more than muted concern. In trying not to interfere, it inadvertently enables, signaling that the theater works, that ambiguity pays off, that the show can go on.

And in the end, it’s the Palestinian cause that suffers. It deserves real defenders, leaders who fight for dignity abroad and uphold it at home. Not those who wave images of the dead while presiding over a nation in despair.

There is no shame in seeking dialogue. But diplomacy requires clarity, preparation, and strength of purpose — especially when engaging with leaders skilled in manipulation and spectacle. In Tunis, Massad Boulos was not outmaneuvered; he was unprepared. Tasked with representing a strategic vision for U.S. engagement in the region, he allowed himself to become a passive participant in KaïsSaied’s political theater.

We may never know what was truly said behind closed doors. American diplomacy may have preferred to deliver its messages discreetly. But in the court of public perception, the effect was disastrous. The images served Saied, not the mission Boulos was sent to defend. Far from strategic diplomacy, it was a miscalculation that offered Saied the perfect optics: a stage to posture, a foreign guest to legitimize him, and a headline to mask his domestic failures.

Ghazi Ben Ahmed

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Ghazi Ben Ahmed

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As war engulfs the Middle East, the global stage is witnessing a Cold War-like resurgence. Amid the escalating Western-Eastern power rivalry, specifically the West versus Russia and China, ‘swing countries’ in the region are gaining significance. Historically aligned with the West, nations such as Tunisia and Libya hint at potential realignment with the East, raising critical questions about evolving partnerships and geopolitical balance. North Africa’s political disarray and local unpredictability create favorable conditions for Russian hegemony.

Let’s take the case of Tunisia. Kais Saied’s rise in Tunisia reflects the country’s post-2011 revolution struggles, signaling a shift from a promising economy to one on the fringes.

Tunisia signed a 10-year Road Map for Defense Cooperation in 2020, emphasizing the importance of the US relationship in North Africa and the Mediterranean. Successful implementation could serve as a model for negotiations with other nations in Africa and beyond.

Tunisia, eleven years removed from its 2011 revolution, faces challenges to its democratic journey amid political turmoil and economic uncertainties. Safeguarding Tunisia’s democratic transition is crucial, and the United States must also prevent potential alignment with Russia. This alignment could adversely impact European security, alter global power dynamics, and reshape 21st-century geopolitical strategies, underscoring the need to uphold Tunisia’s democratic stability.

The North African nation’s increasing swerve towards the East has diverse motivations, including the pursuit of economic opportunities, restructured security arrangements, and dissatisfaction with prevailing Western policies. Should Tunisia, a major non-NATO US ally and considered by the US as a security exporter, shift its alliances, it holds the potential to significantly impact global power dynamics, potentially reshaping geopolitical strategies in the 21st century.

Russia actively asserts influence in the Middle East and North Africa, aligning with Russian political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov’s views on the global importance of a strong position in the region. Russia’s strategic shift towards North Africa heightened after the 2014 Crimea annexation sanctions and persisted post-2022 Ukraine war. Relying on maritime exports, Russia must adapt to global energy market changes amid strained Euro-Atlantic relations for its future global standing.

For the past two decades, Russia has strategically fostered alliances with authoritarian regimes across various African regions, often at the expense of democratic institutions. President Vladimir Putin recently articulated his intent to formalize free trade agreements with a cluster of North African countries, signaling a proactive push towards economic collaboration. The move underscores Russia’s concerted effort to extend its economic footprint in North Africa and consolidate ties beyond mere political affiliations.

Russia’s interest extends beyond trade, as it contemplates the possibility of acquiring a permanent or contingency military base, including potential locations in Libya, Egypt, Algeria, and now Tunisia. These facilities would enhance Russian power projection into the Mediterranean and serve as a gateway to the African interior.

Meanwhile, growing dissatisfaction with European policies, exacerbated by issues like the migration crisis, fuels tensions and underscores the importance of understanding Tunisia’s evolving foreign relations and pursuit of new partnerships. The EU’s dependence on Tunisia for migration control  provides its authoritarian leader with substantial negotiation leverage, implying that the West might tolerate governance abuses and overlook calls for economic reforms in exchange for ongoing financial aid.

If Tunisia’s attempt to join the BRICS could be seen as a desperate, albeit naive, effort to diversify its economy as well as a bargaining chip with the West, the rapprochement with Putin’s Russia is very real. Saied harbors ambitions to strengthen ties with the Kremlin by visiting Moscow, and he aims to extend these efforts to Beijing. His objective is to lessen Western influence, which he perceives as a hindrance to his exclusive control over Tunisian matters.

The U.S. and European allies are pivotal in stabilizing Tunisia and its region. U.S. leadership is crucial for countering Russian misinformation, especially in collaboration with major social media platforms like META, known for prioritizing government relations over citizen interests. Enhancing citizens’ awareness of their rights is vital for effective participatory governance, especially leading up to Tunisia’s 2024 presidential elections. Additionally, the U.S. should use its tech influence to support private sector growth and implement climate-smart energy reforms in the region.

In conclusion, the U.S. and its allies must empower pro-democracy forces, uphold democratic values, foster tech-forward and eco-conscious growth, and ensure international collaboration. As Tunisia nears the critical 2024 elections, partners’ commitment to citizens’ rights and countering disinformation is crucial. Maintaining robust Western alliances with Tunisia is key to prevent a zero-sum game where Russia would supplant U.S. and European influence in the North Africa region. Stabilizing Tunisia is not just of regional interest but crucial for international security and US interest.

Article written by Ghazi Ben Ahmed, for Geopolitical Monitor, on 9 February 2024

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