mdi-international

An Oil Shock Tunisia Cannot Absorb Without Structural Reforms

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 17:07:19 +0000

Brent crude settled at $79.45 on March 1 — before the strike on the Ras Tanura refinery operated by Saudi Aramco, before major shipping lines suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and before mounting security alerts signaled that this narrow waterway – conduit for nearly one-fifth of global oil flows – had become a strategic flashpoint.

The price visible on trading screens reflects transactions already executed; it does not fully incorporate routes disrupted, insurance premiums recalculated, and supply chains placed under geopolitical constraint. Markets continue to treat oil primarily as a commodity. Yet in the Strait of Hormuz, it is increasingly subject to geopolitical leverage.

For Tunisia, this shift is not theoretical. It has direct macroeconomic consequences.

A Budget Assumption Under Strain

Tunisia’s 2026 Finance Law is built on an assumed average oil price of $63.3 per barrel. Current levels stand well above that reference. The deviation is economically significant.

Each additional dollar in the price of oil adds approximately 164 million dinars to compensation expenditures. This mechanism is automatic: higher import costs expand subsidy requirements, widening the fiscal deficit unless offset by higher revenues or expenditure restraint.

At $80 per barrel, fiscal pressure intensifies. At $90, adjustment becomes considerably more difficult. At $100, the budgetary impact is substantial and sustained.

Tunisia enters this phase with elevated public debt, rigid expenditure structures dominated by wages, subsidies, and debt servicing, and limited access to international capital markets. In such a configuration, the scope for discretionary counter-cyclical policy is structurally constrained.

Inflation Through Production and Imports

The oil shock extends beyond public finances. Energy is a core input in transport, electricity generation, agriculture, and manufacturing. Petroleum derivatives are embedded in plastics, packaging, fertilizers, and numerous industrial processes. Tunisia also imports finished goods from economies where energy prices are not subsidized, meaning higher oil prices are transmitted directly through import costs.

The consequence is imported inflation.

According to Capital Economics, a prolonged conflict pushing oil to $100 per barrel could add between 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points to global inflation. For Tunisia, such an increase would translate into higher consumer prices, further compressing purchasing power at a time when households are already adjusting to elevated living costs.

Inflation in this context is not merely a statistical outcome; it has distributive effects, disproportionately affecting lower- and middle-income households whose consumption baskets are more sensitive to energy and transport costs.

External Balances and Logistical Pressures

As a net importer of hydrocarbons, Tunisia’s trade balance is structurally sensitive to oil prices. A sustained rise in the energy bill deepens the current account deficit and places additional strain on foreign-exchange reserves; a key buffer for exchange-rate stability and external confidence.

Logistics compound this vulnerability. Maritime insurance premiums have increased amid instability affecting transit routes, particularly through the Suez Canal. Rerouting and security surcharges raise freight costs, affecting both consumer goods and intermediate inputs used in domestic production.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase has noted that dozens of empty oil tankers are currently waiting near the Gulf region. Storage capacity in producing countries is limited to only a few days of output. Should disruptions persist, logistical bottlenecks could evolve into production constraints, reinforcing upward pressure on prices and prolonging market tightness.

Under such conditions, what begins as volatility risks becoming structural imbalance.

A Dual Shock in a Constrained Policy Environment

The present oil surge constitutes a dual shock for Tunisia:

Fiscal, through rising compensation costs and widening deficits;
Economic, through imported inflation, higher production expenses, and increased transport costs.

These channels interact. Larger subsidies expand borrowing needs; higher import bills weaken external balances; inflation erodes real incomes; slower growth limits revenue mobilization. The cumulative effect narrows policy options further.

Tunisia’s vulnerability is structural. The economy remains heavily dependent on imported hydrocarbons to sustain transport, electricity generation, and industry. Export diversification remains limited, and foreign-currency earnings are insufficient to offset large energy import bills. Fiscal rigidities reduce flexibility precisely when flexibility is most needed.

Without structural reform – including accelerated investment in renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, enhanced export competitiveness, and a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy – exposure to external energy shocks will persist.

Regional Context, Asymmetric Exposure

Tunisia is not alone in its sensitivity to oil prices. Morocco, also a net oil importer, faces similar exposure to prolonged price increases and imported inflation.

By contrast, Algeria, as a hydrocarbon exporter, benefits from higher prices in the short term. Yet its fiscal and external balances remain closely tied to energy revenues, and regional instability carries its own financial and security risks. Energy shocks reshape North African macroeconomic dynamics, albeit asymmetrically.

A Narrow Margin for Absorption

The Strait of Hormuz lies far from Tunis geographically, but its stability influences Tunisia’s fiscal trajectory, inflation path, reserve adequacy, and growth outlook. In an interconnected energy system, distance offers no insulation.

If oil prices stabilize quickly, Tunisia will face a demanding but manageable adjustment. If elevated prices persist, the convergence of fiscal expansion, external deterioration, and inflationary pressure could significantly constrain macroeconomic stability.

In this context, the gravest risk is not simply fiscal slippage or higher inflation, but a broader breakdown of economic stability; one that could weaken the dinar, exhaust foreign-exchange reserves, and trigger acute shortages. Such a configuration would not remain confined to macroeconomic indicators; it would carry profound social and political consequences in a country where economic strain has historically translated into systemic upheaval.

A further vulnerability lies in Tunisia’s increasingly constrained diplomatic positioning. External financial support cannot be assumed. In previous crises, Gulf countries provided liquidity backstops or budgetary assistance. Today, geopolitical alignments are more fragmented, and Tunisia’s ambiguous positioning in regional tensions may reduce the likelihood of rapid financial relief from traditional partners.

Should regional polarization intensify, economic repercussions could extend beyond capital flows. Labor mobility, remittance channels, and bilateral economic ties may become exposed to political recalibration. For countries such as Tunisia and Algeria, whose citizens maintain economic linkages across the Gulf, the risk is not only financial but also socio-economic.

In such a scenario and to conclude, the convergence of constrained external financing, accelerating dinar depreciation, reserve exhaustion, entrenched inflation, and disrupted remittance inflows would not merely intensify macroeconomic stress; it could transform what is currently treated as speculative risk into the premature unraveling of an already fragile economic system. An economy structurally dependent on external financing, weak in productive diversification, and unable to generate sustained growth or macroeconomic stability cannot indefinitely absorb cumulative shocks.

Under prolonged pressure, the outcome would not be a cyclical adjustment, but the materialization of a risk long feared yet seldom articulated: that sustained economic breakdown could once again trigger systemic political rupture. If left unaddressed, the consequences may extend beyond institutional instability to social fragmentation and lasting damage to the state itself. The question is no longer whether reform is necessary, but whether there is still time to act.

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Happy New Year 2026 from the MDI team!

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 16:54:41 +0000

Dear fellow citizens, devoted patriots,

As we enter the new year of 2026, my dearest wish is for the salvation of our homeland.

Tunisia stands at a crossroads: we must, above all, save it from bankruptcy, but also rid it of the poison of hatred and polarisation that divides us.

The Tunisian people deserve infinitely better than what they are enduring today. It is unacceptable that a people with a thousand-year-old heritage should be reduced to suffering the humiliation of shortages, the scourge of mass unemployment and the blight of pollution that chokes our cities. Let us finally choose practical action over sterile ideology. The recovery of our economy must no longer be a campaign promise, but our sole and only guiding principle.

Our vision is of a bold and competitive Tunisia. We have talents shining all over the world; it is time to create the conditions for them to build here, at home. We call for an economic revolution based on innovation, the energy transition and the unleashing of initiative.

Let us spare a special thought for our regions, such as Gabès, where the environment and the health of our fellow citizens have for too long been sacrificed on the altar of neglect. Environmental justice is the foundation of dignity. Let us stop diverting regional wealth; let us finally devote it to the priority development of those who produce and protect it.

Now is the time for unity and absolute autonomy.

Tunisia must no longer beg for its bread or sell off its sovereignty to anyone. We emphatically state that our country is not for sale and that its security cannot be delegated: our sovereignty will never be surrendered to Algerian interests or to any foreign power. Let us rely on our own strengths, on our creative genius and on unwavering solidarity with the most vulnerable. We will leave no one by the wayside.

The economic solutions to create wealth and decent jobs for all Tunisians are well known and within our grasp. We possess the necessary skills and our own resources to implement these solutions, so that we may seize our independence with our own hands. We no longer need to remain at the mercy of any country, nor wait for ‘aid’ that condemns us to live forever in the submission and humiliation of dependence.

We must choose our dignity, our ambition and genuine solidarity. Enough of empty slogans, and enough of this rhetoric of “toxic fraternity” which has brought us nothing but alienation. The time has come to stand shoulder to shoulder and rebuild our country, together.

May 2026 be the year of restored sovereignty, economic excellence and social justice. Let us make this the year in which Tunisia stops suffering and starts building again.

Long live Tunisia, free, prosperous and proud!

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Clitomachus of Carthage, the Tunisian philosopher our Republic needs!

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 19:52:59 +0000

Since independence, Tunisia has continuously sought to define the contours of an identity that is truly its own—both freed from the weight of colonial domination and liberated from reductive interpretations. The notion of “Tunisianity” belongs to this quest: not a single Arab-Muslim identity, but the heritage of a long historical layering in which Berbers, Punics, Romans, Christians, Arabs and other Mediterranean peoples have, successively or simultaneously, shaped this land.

Habib Bourguiba himself embodied this ambivalence. In the early years of independence, he favoured a unifying discourse centred on Arab-Muslim belonging, even distancing the Amazigh dimension, which he perceived as a potential threat to national unity. Yet, at the same time, he was profoundly aware of the richness of Tunisia’s ancient past and did not hesitate to symbolically place himself in the lineage of figures such as Hannibal or Saint Augustine. It is from this plural historical foundation that he paradoxically helped forge the basis of a modern Tunisianity: rooted in its historical depth, yet open to the Mediterranean and the wider world.

It is within this intellectual continuity that it becomes both relevant and necessary today to consider the integration of Clitomachus of Carthage into the Tunisian pantheon.

Clitomachus of Carthage: a Carthaginian at the heart of ancient philosophy

Clitomachus of Carthage, whose Carthaginian name was Hasdrubal, is one of the most fascinating yet most overlooked figures of ancient philosophy. Born in Carthage around 187 BC, he left his native city for Athens after the destruction of Carthage, where he became a disciple of Carneades and, later, the head of the New Academy.

His work forms part of the tradition of Academic scepticism, in opposition to the dogmatism of the Stoics and the Epicureans. Clitomachus rejected the idea of absolute certainty and proposed that our judgements be founded on what is probable rather than what is certain. After the death of Carneades, he did not merely defend his master’s ideas: he deepened, organised and extended them, giving Academic scepticism its most accomplished form.

None of his writings has survived directly, yet his influence permeates Greco-Roman philosophy, notably through the works of Cicero. Clitomachus thus embodies an erudite ancient Tunisia—discreet, yet essential to the history of universal thought.

A philosophy of the probable for a world of uncertainty

Clitomachus’s thought rests on two pillars:

the rejection of absolute certainty;
the adoption of probability as a criterion for judgement and action.

For him, our perceptions and reasoning are always susceptible to error. Unlike the Stoics, who believed that completely reliable knowledge was attainable, Clitomachus held that we can never reach such a level of certainty.

Confronted with this fragility, he did not advocate withdrawal from the world, but rather an art of decision-making amid uncertainty. He distinguished several degrees of probability—simple, confirmed, then confirmed and coherent—which allow one to act without falling into dogmatism. What matters is not “knowing once and for all”, but accepting that our judgements must be continually reassessed in light of new information.

Clitomachus thus stands at the heart of an ancient debate—between fate and freedom, certainty and doubt—which resonates with particular force today. His critique of Stoic fatalism and of the astrological beliefs of his time echoes our contemporary struggles against conspiratorial narratives, mass disinformation and ready-made truths.

Formulated more than two thousand years ago, his principles speak to our era saturated with information and rumours:

beware of easy certainties;
accept uncertainty as a normal condition;
act on the basis of what is most probable, without claiming to possess ultimate truth.

Clitomachus’s probabilistic scepticism is not a philosophy of paralysis, but a school of vigilance, prudence and responsibility.

A missing pillar of the Tunisian pantheon

In the Council of Ministers’ chamber at the Carthage Palace, the Tunisian president placed, like four sentinels of Tunisianity, the tutelary figures watching over the young Republic: Hannibal the strategist, Jugurtha the resister, Ibn Khaldun the thinker, and above all Saint Augustine, the Carthaginian who managed to hold together faith and reason.

But this pantheon still lacks a purely philosophical figure, born of its soil, embodying the strength of critical thought and rational dialogue: Clitomachus. His philosophy reminds us that the search for truth is a path, not a fixed block; that it requires doubt, the confrontation of arguments, and the refusal of overly simple answers.

In a world where truth often seems elusive, where extremist narratives and media manipulation proliferate, Clitomachus offers us a precious antidote:

constructive doubt rather than cynicism;
enlightened inquiry rather than blind belief;
reasonable probability rather than fanatical certainty.

Just as fruitful connections were once drawn between Saint Augustine and Plato, Clitomachus can extend another synthesis: that of faith, reason and rational inquiry—an integral part of the Mediterranean’s deeper identity. To add him to the Tunisian pantheon would be to assert loudly that Tunisia is defined not only by the sword or dogma, but also by the mind, debate, enlightened doubt and the pursuit of truth.

An act of cultural reappropriation

Far from representing an inward-looking identity claim, the recognition of Clitomachus would strengthen the image of Tunisia as a crossroads of civilisations—open and conscious of the richness of its past. It would in fact extend Bourguiba’s most fertile intuition: to situate Tunisia not within a narrow identity, but within a plural, Mediterranean and universalist historical continuity.

Granting Clitomachus an explicit place within the Tunisian pantheon would be an essential gesture of cultural reappropriation. It would amount to affirming that critical thought, philosophy and knowledge are not merely imported from elsewhere: they were also produced here, in Carthage, by a Tunisian before the word existed.

Such a gesture would help rebalance a Tunisian collective imagination too often turned towards external references, even though Tunisia possesses an immense, under-exploited intellectual heritage of its own. Instead of citing only the poets of the jāhiliyya or distant figures, it would mean placing at the centre our own thinkers, our own sages—those who spoke from this land.

Restoring Clitomachus and other Carthaginian or Mediterranean figures to our symbolic horizon does not fragment the nation; on the contrary, it reconfigures our past in the sense described by Paul Ricoeur: changing the meaning of that past by rereading it differently. It is not about resurrecting rival identities, but about stitching back together what has been torn apart: recreating a common narrative, strengthening the sense of belonging and fostering a deeper cohesion among Tunisians, united around a plural history that is fully assumed and fully claimed. Only under these conditions will we be able to face together the challenges of development and finally offer young people a future worthy of their aspirations.

Translated from the article written in French on the Tunisian media outlet Business News.

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Tunisia: a possible US – facilitated recovery?

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Thu, 27 Nov 2025 21:38:14 +0000

Tunisia has the possibility to explore a new approach towards economic recovery beyond its traditional resources (agriculture, phosphates, tourism, mechanical wares, real estate opportunities, energy projects, etc.) by exploiting the healthcare services sector with European customers and US investors.
Singapore’s case could provide some inspirations, but the essential requirements are a careful navigation of the complexities of its forthcoming transition and avoiding the repetition of past missteps.

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Morocco’s Generation Z 212: A New Echo of the Arab Spring

Ahmed Lagha — Thu, 27 Nov 2025 21:21:39 +0000

On December 17, 2010, the Tunisian Revolution began when a young street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire after being humiliated by the municipal police of Sidi Bouzid.

The popular uprisings that followed his self-immolation marked the starting point of the Arab Spring, inspiring widespread protest movements across the Maghreb and the broader Arab world.

In Morocco, the monarchy managed to anticipate, absorb, and neutralize the unrest while preserving its image as the nation’s stabilizing arbiter.

However, today, with the rise of the “Generation Z 212” movement, some analysts see what they describe as a delayed spark of the Arab Spring: a new form of revolt, without leaders or political parties, expressing a similar frustration—this time in the digital age.

Since late September 2025, Morocco has been experiencing an unprecedented wave of protests driven by young people determined to make their voices heard. In several cities—Rabat, Casablanca, Tangier, Marrakech, and Agadir—thousands of youths gather to demand dignity, social justice, and better living conditions. Born out of a tragedy at the Agadir hospital, where several women lost their lives during childbirth, the movement has evolved into a collective cry against inequalities that have become unbearable.

This generation, nicknamed “Generation Z 212,” organizes itself without leaders or parties: everything happens online, through Discord or TikTok, where decisions are made collectively. The digital sphere is no longer just a space for expression but a real political arena and a shared space of consciousness.

Their demands are clear: access to education and healthcare, the fight against corruption, public transparency, and a reorientation of national priorities. Many denounce the contrast between massive investments in sports infrastructure ahead of the 2030 World Cup and the deterioration of public services.

But beyond immediate demands, it is a quest for dignity that drives these young people. They are fighting not only for jobs but for recognition and social justice. Despite arrests and moments of tension, the movement’s maturity and its ability to remain peaceful command respect.

What is happening in Morocco today goes beyond a national protest: it signals the emergence of an Arab and African youth that refuses silence, invents new forms of participation, and redefines the relationship between the governed and the governing.

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A nation drained: The alarming rise of Tunisian migration among youth

Ahmed Lagha — Mon, 27 Oct 2025 21:13:00 +0000

More than 150,000 Tunisians have left their country over the past five years (2019–2024) to settle abroad. This figure is almost double the number of departures recorded during the 2009–2014 period.

In 2022, 1,816,833 Tunisians—representing 15.4% of the population—were registered as TRE (Tunisians Residing Abroad), which amounts to roughly one out of every seven citizens.

The conclusion is clear: Tunisian migration has intensified over the past decade, especially among young people. A genuine brain drain is underway, and engineering and medicine—sectors in high demand worldwide—are the most affected by this outward migration.

According to an official statement by the Dean of Tunisian Engineers, Kamel Sahnoun, in 2025, 39,000 engineers out of 90,000 registered with the Order of Engineers have left Tunisia to settle abroad. The country trains approximately 8,000 engineers each year, and on average, 20 engineers emigrate every day, further worsening the shortage of qualified labor in several key sectors.

Even more alarming, in 2025, out of a graduating class of 1,900 Tunisian doctors, 1,600 left Tunisia to work abroad.

The Tunisian brain drain reveals a deep imbalance between the country’s human potential and its national ability to retain and utilize it.

Tunisia invests substantially in training its engineers, doctors, and researchers, but the benefits of this investment materialize abroad, in countries that are better equipped to absorb and value this talent.

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM – UN Migration), the majority of young Tunisians who emigrate cite as their main motivations: lack of professional opportunities, low salaries, and limited career prospects.

For example, Tunisia is now the leading provider of foreign doctors in France, after Morocco. And without significant economic and social improvements, these numbers are likely to rise in the future.

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The Case for Regime Change in Iran and the Urgency of Regional Realignment

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Wed, 06 Aug 2025 18:35:14 +0000

The United States has shattered a long-standing strategic taboo. By directly targeting the Iranian nuclear facilities of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, once deemed politically untouchable, Operation Midnight Hammer marked a decisive and inevitable turn. “We’re not at war with Iran,” U.S. Vice President JD Vance said. “We’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program.” More than a tactical warning, the strikes signaled the end of strategic ambiguity. The real question now is not whether this will be repeated. It almost certainly will, as Iran is already preparing its response, but whether the international community is finally willing to resolve, once and for all, the ambiguity surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.

For over two decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has exploited diplomacy while secretly advancing its nuclear program. Parallel to this, it has entrenched itself across the region through an expansive network of proxies, from Hezbollah to the Houthis. Iran was reportedly aware of Hamas’s planning ahead of the October 7th massacre, underscoring its role as the orchestrator-in-chief of regional instability. Despite sanctions and negotiations, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has pursued nuclear capabilities with unwavering resolve, as confirmed by recent IAEA reports and European officials. French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu bluntly acknowledged: Iran possesses all components needed to build a nuclear bomb.

The recent strikes, though bold, have uncertain results. Conflicting reports obscure the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. What is certain is that Iran retains much, if not all, of its offensive capabilities. Believingotherwise is dangerously naïve. Iran’s nuclear knowledge cannot be bombed out of existence. As Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association notes, Iran can rebuild faster than ever.

This is why regime change in Iran is not a rhetorical flourish but a strategic necessity. So long as the Islamic Republic survives, the region remains hostage to its ambitions. And that change must come from within.

Iranians are not silent. From the Green Movement to the more recent “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprisings, the people have made clear their yearning for a different future. Crushed, censored, surveilled, yet unbroken, they represent the only legitimate force capable of breaking this cycle of aggression and repression. Opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi have called this a historic window of opportunity to dismantle a regime that has failed its people and endangered its neighbors.

But ending Tehran’s malign influence also requires addressing the regional autocracies that shield and amplify it. Chief among them: Algeria.

Algeria has positioned itself as Iran’s key ally in North Africa. Its regime, repressive and unaccountable, has tightened its ties with Tehran while projecting strong influence over neighboring Tunisia, that became a swing country. Under President Kaïs Saïd, Tunisia has drifted dangerously toward authoritarianism, encouraged and supported by Algiers. Iranian-linked institutions are now operating inside Tunisia’s borders, including the controversial Ahl al-Bayt Center and newly established Shiite mosques. A once-proud secular and Sunni country is now vulnerable to ideological infiltration and sectarian manipulation.

At the heart of this Iran-Algeria-Tunisia axis lies the Polisario Front, a separatist movement armed and supported by Iran and Algeria, and increasingly legitimized by Tunisian diplomacy. This is not passive alignment; it is a coordinated challenge to regional stability and to Western-aligned states like Morocco.

These developments are not isolated. They reflect a coordinated architecture aimed at exporting instability and opposing Western engagement. Algeria plays a dangerous double game: forging closer ties with Iran while courting Western powers through energy diplomacy. It is time to call this what it is: strategic ambiguity.

What the MENA region needs is a clean break from the doctrines of authoritarian consolidation and ambiguity. A democratic Iran, free from the grip of the clerical regime, could serve as a linchpin for a new, inclusive security architecture. But such a future also requires containing the authoritarian regimes that act as Tehran’s enablers.

This realignment must also include a just solution for the Palestinian people, one that is not hijacked by Iranian-backed militias like Hamas, but rooted in legitimate statehood, accountability, and coexistence. The suffering of the Palestinians must no longer serve as a cynical pretext for geopolitical manipulation by toxic regimes that exploit their cause while doing nothing to advance it. A genuine solution is needed not slogans, not proxy wars.

On Iran’s periphery, autonomous aspirations are growing. Among Kurds and Baluchis, suppressed identities are resurfacing. Syria’s Kurds are closer than ever to achieving autonomy; Iraq’s Kurds have set a precedent. In the event of the regime’s collapse, new federated or independent structures could emerge, not as imperial designs, but as organic responses to longstanding grievances.

Meanwhile, in the Gulf, former adversaries of Iran are recalibrating. Saudi Arabia’s recent normalization with Tehran and the UAE’s pragmatic re-engagement reflect a shift driven less by trust in Iran’s intentions than by concerns over regional stability and perceptions of American disengagement. While these moves may offer short-term de-escalation, they risk legitimizing a regime that continues to export instability. Without a clear and principled counterweight, this détente could embolden Tehran rather than contain it.

We must not cling to illusions. The Islamic Republic will not reform itself. It will not be deterred by sanctions or rhetorical condemnations. While Tehran may not be planning a direct repeat of October 7, it is almost certainly exploring options to strike back, timed for maximum political and psychological impact, particularly when U.S. vulnerabilities are exposed. These calculations are unlikely to be uniform across the regime; rather, they are the subject of intense internal debate among the various factions of power, hardliners, pragmatists, and the security establishment, each weighing the risks, timing, and costs of escalation. For the Islamic Republic, harming American or Israeli interests is not only strategic, it is deeply woven into its revolutionary identity.

Regime change in Iran, and the containment of its regional enablers, is the only path toward stability, sovereignty, and shared prosperity in the MENA region. Stability in the Middle East is incompatible with the survival of the Islamic Republic. The time for half-measures is over. Should Donald Trump choose to fully back this historic moment, by weakening the Iranian regime and accentuating its vulnerabilities and enabling a decisive regional realignment, he could not only reshape the global order but also earn something few would have imagined: the Nobel Peace Prize.

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Staged and Shamed: How Kaïs Saied Used the U.S. to Boost His Regime

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Wed, 06 Aug 2025 18:26:47 +0000

In the gilded halls of Carthage Palace, Tunisian President Kaïs Saied delivered what was meant to look like a principled stand. In reality, it was a carefully choreographed ambush. When Massad Boulos, adviser to Donald Trump on Arab and African affairs, arrived in Tunis, he was met not with the customary decorum of diplomacy, but with a solemn and theatrical display: graphic images of Palestinian suffering, accusations of genocide, and a scathing indictment of Israeli policy. There was no attempt at dialogue, no pretense of cooperation. It was a lecture and a performance.

The tragedy unfolding in Gaza is real, and it warrants global attention. But so too is the political manipulation that often cloaks itself in righteous outrage. That an authoritarian figure like Kaïs Saied was the one delivering the message, and that the United States handed him the platform to do so, is what should trouble policymakers in Washington. Whether out of naïveté or miscalculation, the U.S. gifted a struggling strongman the opportunity to polish his image at their expense, and Saied seized it with precision.

What played out in Tunis was not an isolated misstep. It was part of a well-worn script used by autocrats across the region, a performance steeped in ambiguity, crafted to appeal to Western sensitivities while masking the hard truth of domestic repression. When legitimacy falters at home, when economies collapse and dissent simmers, the Palestinian cause becomes the go-to refuge. It offers moral cover, international headlines, and a distraction from domestic decay. From Tehran to Algiers, and now Tunis, the tactic is the same.

Facing Tunisia’s most severe crisis in decades, economic freefall, international isolation, and an erosion of civil liberties, Saied resorted to this playbook. The display wasn’t meant to advance Palestinian rights. It was meant to deflect, to rally support, and to reframe himself as a moral voice in a region where he’s anything but.

This is a man who suspended parliament, dismantled judicial independence, jailed journalists, and crushed dissent. This is a leader who revived ties with Bashar al-Assad, the architect of mass atrocities against the Syrian people. Thousands of children were murdered under Assad’s regime, gassed, burned, and bombed, yet Saied saw no contradiction in welcoming him back into the diplomatic fold. To denounce Israeli brutality while embracing the butcher of Damascus isn’t just hypocrisy, it’s moral bankruptcy.

The meeting with Boulos offered Saied something he rarely gets these days: international validation. And he used it not to engage, but to perform. He wasn’t speaking to America; he was speaking through America, to a domestic audience he hopes to galvanize and to regional powers drawn to the toxic blend of populism and authoritarianism he now embodies. The message was clear: I stand defiant, I resist pressure, I defend Palestine. Never mind the Tunisians enduring rising poverty, censorship, and fear under his rule.

What did Washington expect to gain from this encounter? Influence? Leverage? The result was a photo op turned political weapon. And it underscores a deeper problem: the U.S. continues to treat repressive regimes as if they are rational actors in a shared rules-based order. But today’s autocrats aren’t just governing, they’re staging performances, and unless America understands that, it will continue being cast in roles it never auditioned for.

What makes this all the more damaging is the silence that follows. As Saied brands political opponents as traitors, lashes out at NGOs, and tightens his grip on power, Washington offers little more than muted concern. In trying not to interfere, it inadvertently enables, signaling that the theater works, that ambiguity pays off, that the show can go on.

And in the end, it’s the Palestinian cause that suffers. It deserves real defenders, leaders who fight for dignity abroad and uphold it at home. Not those who wave images of the dead while presiding over a nation in despair.

There is no shame in seeking dialogue. But diplomacy requires clarity, preparation, and strength of purpose — especially when engaging with leaders skilled in manipulation and spectacle. In Tunis, Massad Boulos was not outmaneuvered; he was unprepared. Tasked with representing a strategic vision for U.S. engagement in the region, he allowed himself to become a passive participant in KaïsSaied’s political theater.

We may never know what was truly said behind closed doors. American diplomacy may have preferred to deliver its messages discreetly. But in the court of public perception, the effect was disastrous. The images served Saied, not the mission Boulos was sent to defend. Far from strategic diplomacy, it was a miscalculation that offered Saied the perfect optics: a stage to posture, a foreign guest to legitimize him, and a headline to mask his domestic failures.

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“America First” Meets Tunisia: Trump’s Next Strategic Investment Move

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Wed, 06 Aug 2025 18:17:19 +0000

As the populist chapter of Kaïs Saied’s rule nears its end, and his throne begins to wobble under the weight of a desperate and disillusioned population, Tunisia stands at a pivotal crossroads. Though re-elected in the contested October 2024 elections, Saied emerges politically diminished, his domestic legitimacy eroded, and his international isolation deepening. Rather than charting a new course, he clings to symbolic gestures and ideological posturing.

His recent meeting with Trump senior adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, exemplified this drift. Marketed as a sovereign pivot, it instead revealed a president on the defensive, exploiting the tragedy in Gaza to flatter his base by humiliating the American envoy. The performance, intended to project strength, instead laid bare the regime’s fragility — revealing a president increasingly detached from political reality and blind to the country’s pressing economic crises.

Behind Saied’s rhetoric of “diversification” lies no coherent economic vision. China, despite being touted as an alternative, supports IMF-backed reforms and shows little interest in a high-risk partnership. Russia is crippled by war and sanctions; Iran offers ideology, not investment. These alignments do not serve the Tunisian people, they serve a regime in search of legitimacy, propped up by authoritarian allies willing to turn a blind eye.

What is presented as sovereign diplomacy is, in reality, an empty last stand, a clumsy performance aimed at the United States, a power Kaïs Saied openly despises and deeply fears, in a desperate attempt to cling to power and deflect attention from his failures under the guise of anti-imperialist bravado.

A new future is possible

Today, Tunisia is ready to turn the page on a troubled chapter marked by economic stagnation, political instability, and diminished freedoms.

The nation finds itself at a crossroads, presented with a historic opportunity to reshape its future and reassert its role as a dynamic and influential player in the global economy. Healthcare, in particular, offers a strategic avenue for growth, positioning Tunisia as a potential regional hub of medical excellence. By drawing inspiration from Singapore’s model, the country could attract world-class investment and expertise, particularly from the United States. However, seizing this opportunity will require Tunisia to carefully navigate the complexities of its forthcoming transition and avoid repeating the missteps of the past.

A Multi-Billion-Dollar Opportunity for U.S. Firms

Tunisia is uniquely positioned to emerge as a premier medical hub in the Mediterranean region, driven by its advanced private healthcare infrastructure, highly competitive operational costs, and strategic geographic location, conveniently accessible from both Europe and Africa. By attracting European patients who seek not only cost-effective and high-quality medical care but also timely treatment unavailable due to extensive waiting lists in their home countries, Tunisia stands to substantially boost its economy, effectively address the increasing demand for prompt medical services, and significantly enhance its international standing as a trusted healthcare destination.

Healthcare spending in Europe has been increasing steadily, reaching 1,35 trillion euros in 2024. Given that approximately 20%-30% of this expenditure involves elective procedures, Tunisia stands to gain access to a market exceeding €100 billion annually by capturing even a modest 10% share.

In this context, U.S. companies and healthcare providers are poised to seize a multi-billion-dollar opportunity by developing hospitals, clinics, and training centers that serve European and African patients. Furthermore, these investments would strengthen U.S.-Tunisia relations, amplifying American influence in the Mediterranean region and ensuring Tunisia remains aligned with the U.S. rather than drifting eastward into the embrace of Iran or Russia. Yet, troubling signs already loom on the horizon: since June 15, 2024, Iranians have enjoyed visa-free entry into Tunisia, quietly planting seeds of influence whose bitter harvest we may soon reap. This policy is part of a broader strategy by Kais Saied to deepen political, trade, and cultural ties with the Iranian regime, a move that raises serious concerns about the geopolitical and domestic ramifications of aligning Tunisia with such a repressive and destabilizing force.

Simultaneously, Russia, freshly expelled from Syria, actively searches for fertile ground upon which to anchor a new naval base—its eyes now set firmly upon Tunisia’s strategic shores.

Amid growing geopolitical threats, Tunisia has a brief but critical window to redefine its path. The post-populist transition will be crucial, as any delay risks missed opportunities and increased external vulnerability.

Positioning Tunisia as a premier medical hub could serve as a cornerstone of this transition. By addressing critical regulatory and logistical hurdles in the healthcare sector, Tunisia can attract world-class investment and expertise. Crafting comprehensive bilateral agreements with key European countries would streamline reimbursement processes, facilitate patient mobility, and ensure alignment with EU medical standards. Additionally, adopting successful models such as partnerships between American healthcare giants like Johns Hopkins or Mayo Clinic and medical hubs in the UAE or Singapore could reduce European skepticism toward healthcare services outside the EU.

A crucial two-year transition

With Tunisia nearing the end of a turbulent political cycle, the country will require a two-year transition to lay the groundwork for credible reforms and renewed investor confidence—delivering quick wins while shaping a long-term economic strategy.

While healthcare holds long-term promise, Tunisia’s immediate gains lie in its rich phosphate reserves, military collaboration, tourism and real estate opportunities, energy projects, and active regional diplomacy.

Notably, phosphate, though not currently on the U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, is gaining attention, with industry groups like The Fertilizer Institute pushing for its inclusion. Its crucial role in American agriculture aligns with the “America First” agenda, offering quick wins for the Trump administration while boosting Tunisia’s stability and economy.

Tunisia could attract U.S. investments by mirroring Singapore’s stability, infrastructure, and pro-business policies, but it must first tackle corruption, bureaucracy, and instability. That will be among the objectives of Tunisia’s post-populist two-year transition. Initiatives such as special investment zones offering streamlined regulations and incentives could create immediate economic momentum.

To further reassure American investors, and shield itself from hostile neighbors, Tunisia should also replicate Singapore’s nuanced strategy of protecting investments through robust legal guarantees, economic alignment, and a carefully balanced strategic military presence—one that stops short of a full U.S. military base but still signals security and reliability. Tunisian success stories would act as powerful driver for expanding American influence and economic interests into Libya and across the Region.

L’article “America First” Meets Tunisia: Trump’s Next Strategic Investment Move est apparu en premier sur mdi-international.

Healthcare Hub: A New Strategic Partnership Between MDI and NYU Urban Lab!

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Fri, 18 Jul 2025 21:01:00 +0000

The Mediterranean Development Initiative (MDI) is proud to announce a groundbreaking partnership with the NYU Urban Lab. This collaboration marks a major step toward transforming Tunisia into a regional hub for healthcare innovation and medical tourism, combining regional insight with global expertise.

At the heart of this initiative is a shared vision: to develop forward-thinking business strategies that support Tunisia’s economic transformation and unlock its full potential.

“Over the next twelve months, we plan to recruit Tunisian experts from MDI to join NYU Urban Lab student researchers and faculty to jointly explore how Tunisia can scale its healthcare ecosystem,” said Professor Matthew Kwatinetz, Director of NYU Urban Lab. “By leveraging NYU’s experience in large-scale urban systems and economic development, from New York to Africa, we aim to co-create pathways for investment, innovation, and inclusive growth in Tunisia’s healthcare sector.”

This strategic collaboration will focus on:
• Designing actionable frameworks for sustainable investment in the healthcare sector,
• Promoting entrepreneurship and modernization in medical services,
• Positioning Tunisia as a gateway for regional healthcare solutions.

“This agreement marks a critical milestone in our mission to reimagine Tunisia’s role in the Mediterranean,” said Ghazi Ben Ahmed, Founder and Executive Director of MDI. “By aligning rigorous research with pragmatic investment strategies, we are building the foundation for a dynamic, open, and resilient Tunisia.”

A Stepping Stone for United States -Tunisia Cooperation :

This initiative also lays the groundwork for expanding U.S. investment in Tunisia, deepening connections with American academic, philanthropic, and financial institutions. By embedding global standards of innovation, transparency, and opportunity creation, MDI aims to foster lasting partnerships that support Tunisia’s long-term development.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between MDI and NYU Urban Lab will pave the way for:
• Joint research programs,
• Inclusive policy dialogues,
• Student and expert exchanges that empower a new generation of Tunisian leaders and entrepreneurs.

An Open Call for Support :

Mediterranean Development Initiative and NYU Urban Lab invite foundations, development agencies, financial institutions, and philanthropic partners to join this ambitious effort. Funding and collaboration opportunities are available for those committed to advancing:
• Sustainable development,
• Healthcare innovation,
• Inclusive economic growth in Tunisia and across the Mediterranean region.

Let’s work together to make Tunisia a model for regional healthcare transformation and a beacon of economic resilience.

L’article Healthcare Hub: A New Strategic Partnership Between MDI and NYU Urban Lab! est apparu en premier sur mdi-international.