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An Oil Shock Tunisia Cannot Absorb Without Structural Reforms

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 17:07:19 +0000

Brent crude settled at $79.45 on March 1 — before the strike on the Ras Tanura refinery operated by Saudi Aramco, before major shipping lines suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and before mounting security alerts signaled that this narrow waterway – conduit for nearly one-fifth of global oil flows – had become a strategic flashpoint.

The price visible on trading screens reflects transactions already executed; it does not fully incorporate routes disrupted, insurance premiums recalculated, and supply chains placed under geopolitical constraint. Markets continue to treat oil primarily as a commodity. Yet in the Strait of Hormuz, it is increasingly subject to geopolitical leverage.

For Tunisia, this shift is not theoretical. It has direct macroeconomic consequences.

A Budget Assumption Under Strain

Tunisia’s 2026 Finance Law is built on an assumed average oil price of $63.3 per barrel. Current levels stand well above that reference. The deviation is economically significant.

Each additional dollar in the price of oil adds approximately 164 million dinars to compensation expenditures. This mechanism is automatic: higher import costs expand subsidy requirements, widening the fiscal deficit unless offset by higher revenues or expenditure restraint.

At $80 per barrel, fiscal pressure intensifies. At $90, adjustment becomes considerably more difficult. At $100, the budgetary impact is substantial and sustained.

Tunisia enters this phase with elevated public debt, rigid expenditure structures dominated by wages, subsidies, and debt servicing, and limited access to international capital markets. In such a configuration, the scope for discretionary counter-cyclical policy is structurally constrained.

Inflation Through Production and Imports

The oil shock extends beyond public finances. Energy is a core input in transport, electricity generation, agriculture, and manufacturing. Petroleum derivatives are embedded in plastics, packaging, fertilizers, and numerous industrial processes. Tunisia also imports finished goods from economies where energy prices are not subsidized, meaning higher oil prices are transmitted directly through import costs.

The consequence is imported inflation.

According to Capital Economics, a prolonged conflict pushing oil to $100 per barrel could add between 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points to global inflation. For Tunisia, such an increase would translate into higher consumer prices, further compressing purchasing power at a time when households are already adjusting to elevated living costs.

Inflation in this context is not merely a statistical outcome; it has distributive effects, disproportionately affecting lower- and middle-income households whose consumption baskets are more sensitive to energy and transport costs.

External Balances and Logistical Pressures

As a net importer of hydrocarbons, Tunisia’s trade balance is structurally sensitive to oil prices. A sustained rise in the energy bill deepens the current account deficit and places additional strain on foreign-exchange reserves; a key buffer for exchange-rate stability and external confidence.

Logistics compound this vulnerability. Maritime insurance premiums have increased amid instability affecting transit routes, particularly through the Suez Canal. Rerouting and security surcharges raise freight costs, affecting both consumer goods and intermediate inputs used in domestic production.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase has noted that dozens of empty oil tankers are currently waiting near the Gulf region. Storage capacity in producing countries is limited to only a few days of output. Should disruptions persist, logistical bottlenecks could evolve into production constraints, reinforcing upward pressure on prices and prolonging market tightness.

Under such conditions, what begins as volatility risks becoming structural imbalance.

A Dual Shock in a Constrained Policy Environment

The present oil surge constitutes a dual shock for Tunisia:

Fiscal, through rising compensation costs and widening deficits;
Economic, through imported inflation, higher production expenses, and increased transport costs.

These channels interact. Larger subsidies expand borrowing needs; higher import bills weaken external balances; inflation erodes real incomes; slower growth limits revenue mobilization. The cumulative effect narrows policy options further.

Tunisia’s vulnerability is structural. The economy remains heavily dependent on imported hydrocarbons to sustain transport, electricity generation, and industry. Export diversification remains limited, and foreign-currency earnings are insufficient to offset large energy import bills. Fiscal rigidities reduce flexibility precisely when flexibility is most needed.

Without structural reform – including accelerated investment in renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, enhanced export competitiveness, and a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy – exposure to external energy shocks will persist.

Regional Context, Asymmetric Exposure

Tunisia is not alone in its sensitivity to oil prices. Morocco, also a net oil importer, faces similar exposure to prolonged price increases and imported inflation.

By contrast, Algeria, as a hydrocarbon exporter, benefits from higher prices in the short term. Yet its fiscal and external balances remain closely tied to energy revenues, and regional instability carries its own financial and security risks. Energy shocks reshape North African macroeconomic dynamics, albeit asymmetrically.

A Narrow Margin for Absorption

The Strait of Hormuz lies far from Tunis geographically, but its stability influences Tunisia’s fiscal trajectory, inflation path, reserve adequacy, and growth outlook. In an interconnected energy system, distance offers no insulation.

If oil prices stabilize quickly, Tunisia will face a demanding but manageable adjustment. If elevated prices persist, the convergence of fiscal expansion, external deterioration, and inflationary pressure could significantly constrain macroeconomic stability.

In this context, the gravest risk is not simply fiscal slippage or higher inflation, but a broader breakdown of economic stability; one that could weaken the dinar, exhaust foreign-exchange reserves, and trigger acute shortages. Such a configuration would not remain confined to macroeconomic indicators; it would carry profound social and political consequences in a country where economic strain has historically translated into systemic upheaval.

A further vulnerability lies in Tunisia’s increasingly constrained diplomatic positioning. External financial support cannot be assumed. In previous crises, Gulf countries provided liquidity backstops or budgetary assistance. Today, geopolitical alignments are more fragmented, and Tunisia’s ambiguous positioning in regional tensions may reduce the likelihood of rapid financial relief from traditional partners.

Should regional polarization intensify, economic repercussions could extend beyond capital flows. Labor mobility, remittance channels, and bilateral economic ties may become exposed to political recalibration. For countries such as Tunisia and Algeria, whose citizens maintain economic linkages across the Gulf, the risk is not only financial but also socio-economic.

In such a scenario and to conclude, the convergence of constrained external financing, accelerating dinar depreciation, reserve exhaustion, entrenched inflation, and disrupted remittance inflows would not merely intensify macroeconomic stress; it could transform what is currently treated as speculative risk into the premature unraveling of an already fragile economic system. An economy structurally dependent on external financing, weak in productive diversification, and unable to generate sustained growth or macroeconomic stability cannot indefinitely absorb cumulative shocks.

Under prolonged pressure, the outcome would not be a cyclical adjustment, but the materialization of a risk long feared yet seldom articulated: that sustained economic breakdown could once again trigger systemic political rupture. If left unaddressed, the consequences may extend beyond institutional instability to social fragmentation and lasting damage to the state itself. The question is no longer whether reform is necessary, but whether there is still time to act.

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Happy New Year 2026 from the MDI team!

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 16:54:41 +0000

Dear fellow citizens, devoted patriots,

As we enter the new year of 2026, my dearest wish is for the salvation of our homeland.

Tunisia stands at a crossroads: we must, above all, save it from bankruptcy, but also rid it of the poison of hatred and polarisation that divides us.

The Tunisian people deserve infinitely better than what they are enduring today. It is unacceptable that a people with a thousand-year-old heritage should be reduced to suffering the humiliation of shortages, the scourge of mass unemployment and the blight of pollution that chokes our cities. Let us finally choose practical action over sterile ideology. The recovery of our economy must no longer be a campaign promise, but our sole and only guiding principle.

Our vision is of a bold and competitive Tunisia. We have talents shining all over the world; it is time to create the conditions for them to build here, at home. We call for an economic revolution based on innovation, the energy transition and the unleashing of initiative.

Let us spare a special thought for our regions, such as Gabès, where the environment and the health of our fellow citizens have for too long been sacrificed on the altar of neglect. Environmental justice is the foundation of dignity. Let us stop diverting regional wealth; let us finally devote it to the priority development of those who produce and protect it.

Now is the time for unity and absolute autonomy.

Tunisia must no longer beg for its bread or sell off its sovereignty to anyone. We emphatically state that our country is not for sale and that its security cannot be delegated: our sovereignty will never be surrendered to Algerian interests or to any foreign power. Let us rely on our own strengths, on our creative genius and on unwavering solidarity with the most vulnerable. We will leave no one by the wayside.

The economic solutions to create wealth and decent jobs for all Tunisians are well known and within our grasp. We possess the necessary skills and our own resources to implement these solutions, so that we may seize our independence with our own hands. We no longer need to remain at the mercy of any country, nor wait for ‘aid’ that condemns us to live forever in the submission and humiliation of dependence.

We must choose our dignity, our ambition and genuine solidarity. Enough of empty slogans, and enough of this rhetoric of “toxic fraternity” which has brought us nothing but alienation. The time has come to stand shoulder to shoulder and rebuild our country, together.

May 2026 be the year of restored sovereignty, economic excellence and social justice. Let us make this the year in which Tunisia stops suffering and starts building again.

Long live Tunisia, free, prosperous and proud!

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Trapped by Its Own Model: Algeria at the Edge

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Sun, 20 Apr 2025 20:53:01 +0000

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Arab powers are racing to secure Washington’s favor. From Riyadh to Abu Dhabi, regional giants are pledging massive U.S. investments—$600 billion from Saudi Arabia, $1.4 trillion over a decade from the UAE—targeting AI, semiconductors, and energy. Amid this geopolitical bidding war, Algeria—long known for its cautious, non-aligned foreign policy—has made a series of unexpected moves

After years of resisting deeper ties with the U.S., Algiers abruptly signed a military agreement with AFRICOM and followed it with an energy deal with ExxonMobil. These rapid overtures seem less a strategic pivot than a sign of regime anxiety—an attempt to stay relevant in a new order defined by transactional diplomacy. But unlike the Gulf monarchies, Algeria lacks financial clout or strategic leverage. It remains a regional giant with feet of clay: economically fragile, diplomatically isolated, and increasingly adrift.

At the heart of Algeria’s outreach lies one goal: recalibrating U.S. policy on Western Sahara. Since Morocco normalized ties with Israel, Washington—particularly under the Trump administration—has backed Rabat’s claim over the disputed territory, marginalizing Algeria’s historic support for Sahrawi self-determination. That support was recently reaffirmed on April 8^th, 2025, when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Rabat and publicly reiterated America’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara, marking a further blow to Algeria’s diplomatic posture. While Algiers continues to block the UN-led political process and refuses to engage as a responsible stakeholder, the narrative in Washington is hardening. U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson recently announced, “I will introduce legislation to designate the Polisario as terrorists. Iran & Putin gaining a foothold in Africa via Polisario. Connect the dots: axis of aggression.” This stark framing no longer views the Polisario as a liberation movement, but as a proxy within a broader authoritarian alliance. Algeria is no longer just isolated — it’s exposed. Behind the talk of sovereignty lies a regime openly backing Iran, Russia, and a separatist militia now described in Washington as part of an “axis of aggression.” The mask has fallen.

Officially, Algeria upholds non-interference and peaceful resolution. In practice, it has long aligned with authoritarian regimes—most notably Iran and the now-fallen Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. These ties, rooted in anti-Western solidarity and opposition to Gulf influence, have left Algeria increasingly out of step with shifting Arab consensus. Algiers remained one of Assad’s last defenders, facilitating Polisario presence in Syria.

Officially, Algeria upholds non-interference and peaceful resolution. In practice, it has long aligned itself with authoritarian regimes—most notably Iran and the now-fallen Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. These ties, rooted in anti-Western solidarity and opposition to Gulf influence, have left Algeria increasingly out of sync with the evolving Arab consensus. Algiers remained one of Assad’s last defenders, facilitating Polisario presence in Syria even as other Arab states distanced themselves. Over the years, Iran has cultivated a wide web of proxies to advance its regional influence. According to The Washington Post, this includes training fighters from the Algeria-backed Polisario Front—nominally focused on Western Sahara, but increasingly embedded in Tehran’s broader militant network. Today, hundreds of these fighters have been detained by Syria’s post-Assad security forces, underscoring just how entangled the Polisario had become in Iran’s shadow wars. This exposure not only further discredits Algeria’s narrative of neutrality, but also reveals the dangerous externalization of a conflict it claims to keep within diplomatic bounds.

Furthermore, maintaining ties with Iran and its alignment with groups like Hamas—while consistent with Algeria’s historical support for Palestine—risks deepening its rift with key Western and Arab partners at a time when strategic neutrality is increasingly difficult to sustain.

With Assad gone and Iran under maximum pressure, Algeria’s authoritarian alliances are crumbling—exposing its strategic vulnerability. Behind its non-interference rhetoric lies a regime that instinctively sides with autocrats, driven by fear of democratic contagion. Since the Arab Spring, Algiers has resisted reform, backing repression over change. Now, as old alliances crumble, it stands increasingly alone—trapped by a model it cannot abandon without threatening the very foundations of its regime.

Meanwhile, regional pressures on Algeria are intensifying. The Sahel is unraveling under successive coups and Russian mercenary influence, Libya remains unstable, and ties with Morocco are frozen over Western Sahara and normalization with Israel. Algeria’s quiet support for Tunisia’s president Kaïs Saïed only adds to its exposure. Once a buffer, Tunisia is now a source of instability—politically repressive, economically paralyzed, and diplomatically shunned.

A collapse could send shockwaves across the border, triggering economic contagion, insecurity, and unrest in Algeria itself, where stagnation, high unemployment, and a disillusioned youth are already testing the regime’s limits.

These mounting pressures are unfolding against a backdrop of economic fragility. Energy remains the backbone of Algeria’s economy—accounting for 98% of exports—but it no longer ensures strategic relevance. As global markets accelerate toward renewables, Algeria failed to seize critical opportunities—particularly during Europe’s pivot away from Russian gas. Years of under-investment, corruption, and mismanagement have stifled production and innovation. Rather than driving transformation, hydrocarbon revenues are increasingly used as a political safety valve—buying social peace in moments of tension, but reinforcing the rentier status quo instead of reforming it.

What Algeria faces today is not a policy crossroads—it is a regime dilemma. Reforming the economy would require dismantling the opaque patronage networks that control the distribution of oil and gas rents. These networks have long shielded the regime from accountability, entrenched elite control, and stifled entrepreneurship. Reform would mean loosening the system’s grip on power. Refusal would accelerate decline.

Algeria is no longer just drifting — it is decaying in plain sight. A regime built on oil rents and military rule is now out of time, out of ideas, and out of allies. It clings to outdated alliances, obstructs diplomatic progress, and resists every pressure to reform — not out of strategy, but out of fear. Fear of accountability. Fear of its own people. But this equilibrium of repression and denial is brittle — and it may not hold much longer. The spark could come any time from within, or it could arrive from across the border. Tunisia’s deepening unrest — political paralysis, social explosion, economic collapse — is unfolding next door, and its aftershocks will not stop at the frontier. The anger swelling in Tunis today mirrors the frustration simmering in Algiers. And when pressure builds in parallel, collapse often comes in waves. Algerians have endured too much for too long. They deserve more than a system built to preserve power — not serve the people.

This article was written by our founder Ghazi Ben Ahmed on the media The Geopolitics.The Geopolitics (TGP) is a uniquely global source of news, analysis and commentary on current geopolitical issues, politics and international relations.

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Morocco and the Reform of the Moudawana

Ahmed Lagha — Sat, 04 Jan 2025 20:56:00 +0000

The Moudawana, or Moroccan Personal Status Code, is a set of laws governing personal status issues, including marriage, divorce, child custody, inheritance, and family relations in Morocco. Playing a central role in regulating the rights and duties of family members, it was first adopted in 1957/58, following Morocco’s independence.

The Moudawana long reflected a traditional and patriarchal vision of society. However, growing criticism over gender inequality and insufficient protection of women’s rights led to a major revision in 2004, spearheaded by King Mohammed VI, who aimed to safeguard women’s rights while respecting Islamic principles.

The 2004 reform introduced key changes: equality between spouses, raising the legal marriage age from 15 to 18, stricter regulation of polygamy, allowing women to file for divorce under specific circumstances, and reforms in child custody and inheritance.

In late 2024, another revision to the Moudawana brought additional reforms: Moroccan women can now be legal guardians of their children (retaining custody even after remarriage), couples can divorce amicably without court intervention, and wives can prohibit polygamy at the time of marriage.

However, the lack of parity in inheritance laws remains a critical issue, mirroring the situation in Tunisia and serving as a significant obstacle to progressive societal evolution in North Africa.

In Tunisia, for instance, former President Beji Caid Essebsi proposed a historic reform in 2018 to establish gender equality in inheritance. This initiative was part of his broader project to modernize women’s rights and aligned with Tunisia’s progressive legacy in gender equality. Yet, discussions around these legislative proposals remain unresolved.

The fight for more progressive North African societies is far from over, but the efforts made in our time are far from insignificant.

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Best wishes for the new year 2025

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Fri, 03 Jan 2025 11:28:58 +0000

Dear friends, Colleagues, Partners and subscribers. As we welcome 2025, I extend my heartfelt wishes for health, peace, and prosperity to you all. While this new year begins amidst tensions and challenges, it also brings with it glimmers of hope and the opportunity to chart a more promising course for the future.

The recent attacks on the Christmas market in Magdeburg, the vehicle-ramming incident in New Orleans, and the car bombing in Las Vegas are tragic reminders that violence and hatred still strike indiscriminately, spreading fear and despair. Such barbaric acts have no place in our societies. Our collective determination to confront them must remain unwavering, with a firm and unified stand against terrorism wherever it occurs, whether in the West or elsewhere in the world. These heinous crimes, and the perpetrators behind them, betray the fundamental values of humanity and must be condemned without hesitation or ambiguity.

Yet amidst this darkness, there are reasons to be hopeful. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime marks a turning point for a region long plagued by violence and authoritarianism. This moment offers a chance to envision a more humane and inclusive future for the Middle East—one that upholds human rights, embraces diversity, and offers greater opportunities to minorities who have suffered for far too long. A new wind of hope is blowing through the region, and it is imperative that this message resonates not only in the South but also in the North of the Mediterranean.

For Europe, this is a moment of reckoning. Too often, transactional imperatives have overshadowed the deeper need for genuine partnership and cooperation with its southern neighbors. If Europe wishes to effectively tackle the technological, competitive, environmental, and security challenges of our time, it must embrace a bold and transformative approach. A true win-win Pact must be built, one that prioritizes mutual respect and long-term investment in shared prosperity.

Such a partnership requires moving beyond anti-migration measures and focusing on building capacity and fostering opportunity with a long term vision. Together, Europe and the southern Mediterranean can create tangible economic and social initiatives that boost competitiveness, unleash the private sector creativity, and address the root causes of migration, ensuring stability and dignity for all. This vision must be rooted in shared values of justice, humanity, and solidarity, proving that ethical leadership can be both principled and pragmatic.

Under Poland’s presidency, Europe has an opportunity to lead by example. By championing a new era of ethics and cooperation, Europe can reposition itself as a beacon of hope and a model of human rights. The path forward demands courage, compassion, and a willingness to bridge divides—both within and beyond the Mediterranean.

For 2025, I express the hope that we will seize this moment of opportunity. Let us find the balance between firmness and humanity, between determination and compassion. The future of our societies depends on our ability to combine these imperatives and build a world that is safer, fairer, and more unified.

Happy New Year to all. May 2025 be a year of peace, justice, and solidarity, and a time to rekindle hope for a better tomorrow in our neighborhood.

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Mediterranean Development Initiative teams up with Middle East Institute Switzerland

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Fri, 03 May 2024 14:26:09 +0000

We are thrilled to announce our partnership with the think tank MEIS | Middle East Institute Switzerland! Mediterranean Development Initiative joins forces with MEIS | Middle East Institute Switzerland to continue its projects, particularly regarding the southern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Registered in 2021, MEIS is a global network of experts and practitioners exclusively dedicated to the Middle East and North Africa, providing advisory for businesses, producing policy analysis for governments, and developing innovative policies for the Middle East and North Africa.

In the attached photo, our founder Ghazi Ben Ahmed, is seen signing the partnership with Andrea Cellino, representing MEIS and overseeing North Africa-related affairs.

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Commemoration of the 86th anniversary of the Tunisian Martyrs’ Day

Ahmed Lagha — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 20:52:45 +0000

Today, we remember with respect and gratitude the martyrs of Tunisia, who sacrificed their lives for the freedom, dignity, and independence of their country. On April 9th, 1938, during the French colonial regime, a large number of Tunisians were killed in an uprising following the brutal repression of nationalist demonstrations in Sfax. Since then, this date has become a symbol of the struggle for freedom and independence in Tunisia.

On this 86th anniversary of Martyrs’ Day, we honor their courage and determination to uphold the ideals of justice and democracy.

These heroes played a crucial role in Tunisia’s history, fighting against oppression and injustice, and paving the way for a fairer and more equitable society. Their sacrifice continues to inspire us and remind us of the importance of remaining vigilant in protecting our fundamental values.

On this day of remembrance, let us commit to perpetuating the martyrs’ legacy by pursuing their aspirations for a free, prosperous, and democratic Tunisia. May their memory be a source of inspiration and strength for us all!

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MDI took part in the launch event for EGONIX, a young Belgian start-up

Ahmed Lagha — Mon, 26 Feb 2024 18:13:22 +0000

The Tunisian entrepreneurial ecosystem shines with its creativity and dynamism, particularly in diverse fields such as technology and sustainable development. Recently, we’ve highlighted several companies thriving in this domain. But what about the Belgian scene, where our headquarters are currently located?

Mediterranean Development Initiative had the privilege of attending the launching event of EGONIX at the Google Digital Atelier Belgium in BeCentral, a startup founded by a young entrepreneur named Anis Addouh, aged 22!

Starting his entrepreneurial journey at the age of 16, Anis Addouh developed a growing interest in new technologies. In October 2023, he realized his ambition by founding EGONIX after being incubated by Start Lab ICHEC. Armed only with his skills, nascent experience, and later, his partners, Anis first succeeded in commercializing the technology necessary to create virtual business cards, accessible from your smartphones.

The concept? Using NFC (Near Field Communication) technology, allowing the exchange of information packets at close range between devices, two smartphone owners exchange their virtual business cards.

This interaction requires the prior creation of a digital profile containing professional data. Thus, each user instantly obtains the professional information of the other. This process will lead to the establishment of a future platform capable of generating statistics, identifying potential prospects, and effectively managing the contacts and clients of each user.

After a successful crowdfunding campaign, EGONIX managed to gather the necessary funds to continue the next stage of the project, notably through the development of a dynamic and user-friendly platform for sharing professional data.

It must be said that with determination and support from entities like Google or the Brussels-Capital Region, Anis Addouh and his team have everything they need to achieve the pinnacle of their ambitions!

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Ghazi Ben Ahmed – Founder, President and BAC-NA Plateform coordinator

Ghazi Ben Ahmed — Tue, 28 Mar 2023 23:23:32 +0000

The crisis that began with the Arab unrest resulted in a near universal failure to implement the long-term structural reforms required to transform rent-seeking and state-dominated economies into modern ones that embrace both digital and ecological transformation and recognize the salutary impact of competition and private enterprise. There has been much talk about structural reforms but rather limited cohesive commitment to action, as the need to confront short-term problems over long-term problems prevailed.

Today, there is an urgent need for the Mediterranean Region to strengthen its resilience to shocks and accelerate its economic recovery while making growth more inclusive. Policy priorities include accelerating structural reforms to ensure macroeconomic stability, improve governance and business environment, boost competitiveness to attract private investment.

We strongly believe that the EuroMed countries needs a new blueprint to build resilience and bring hope and prosperity to the Region. The COVID19 pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset the EuroMed agreements and for countries in the region to rethink supply chain and strengthen trade and regional integration in order to balance efficiency with resilience. Trade and integration within the EuroMed region and with Africa can provide an opportunity to enhance regional trade relations by establishing safe, green and resilient regional supply chains of essential, and non-essential goods and services in the post-COVID era, and unleash forces for Mediterranean dynamism and position the Med/Africa region as a global player.

Our role as a Euro Mediterranean think tank is to prepare the ground for Southern Mediterranean Neighbors (SMNs) to resume (or start) negotiations with the EU, aiming at “building the Region they want to live in: A Euro Mediterranean Union of vitality in a world of fragility”. A shrewd agreement encompassing a new contract/project and focusing on hubs in sub-regions and variable geometry, could promote economic modernization and growth, to strengthen and stabilize the region. We are putting special emphasis on culture across the Mediterranean region as a tool for a vibrant Mediterranean civil society that can aspire and give a strong impetus for change.

The linchpin of a renewed Euro-Mediterranean Partnership is a long-term vision which is absolutely necessary to make the notion of partnership credible, to give the necessary incentives to SMNs to carry out a consistent set of reforms and ensure that these reforms are underpinned by the strong approbation of the broader citizenry, especially the youth, and to ease political resistance in order to secure the cooperation of SDNs on border control and management, readmission of their nationals who are irregularly present in the EU, and on reception of third country nationals (TCNs) who transited to Europe through their territories.

We are living a Euro-Mediterranean moment. Faced with an extremely challenging near-term outlook shaped by sharply higher food, fertilizer, and energy prices, rising interest rates and credit spreads, currency depreciation, and climate crisis, the best response is Euro-Mediterranean. This severe outlook has hit the Region at a time when many countries are already struggling with governance and rule of law, debt sustainability, climate adaptation and mitigation, and limited fiscal budgets to counteract the critical reversals in development from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The role of the MDI will finally be a moment of projection. The urgency of the moment but also the sense of the future have sharpened the need for the EuroMed Region to lead the twin green and digital transitions and revigorated the EuroMed partnerships for more prosperity and resilience. This creates an unparalleled opportunity to move out of the fragility of the crisis by creating a new vitality for a sustainable EuroMed Region.

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